Braves vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 26

Sean Treppedi | Jun 26, 2025

Grant Holmes' red-hot month of June in the strikeout department paves the way to targeting him against the Mets on Thursday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Just like the doctor ordered, the Mets’ top talent came through to seize a much-needed 7-3 win over the Braves on Wednesday.

Juan Soto homered twice and the Mets out-hit the Braves 13-6 while Clay Holmes pitched five innings of efficient, three-hit baseball. 

Now the Mets pivot to Griffin Canning (7–3, 3.91 ERA), who has provided steady rotation depth, although his strikeout rate (67 Ks in 73⅓ innings) lags behind top-tier Mets arms. 

Grant Holmes (4–6, 3.71 ERA) counters having also quietly pitched well, striking out 97 batters with a solid 1.22 WHIP through 85 innings this season.

The Braves are pegged as slight favorites in the Thursday rubber match. We’ll break it down for you from a betting standpoint below.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Braves -1.5 (+150)
• Mets +1.5 (-182)

Moneyline

• Braves (-104)
• Mets (-112)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-118)
• Under 8.5 (-104)

Braves vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Braves: Grant Holmes (4-6, 3.71 ERA)
• Mets: Griffin Canning (7-3, 3.91 ERA)

Braves vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 26, 2025
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, FDSN South
• Braves Record: 37-42
• Mets Record: 47-34

Braves vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Grant Holmes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 at FanDuel)

Holmes is consistently inducing swinging strikes and misses early in counts, especially with his elite sinking slider and four-seam combination. He attacks the top of the order aggressively, which will be effective against a top-heavy Mets lineup that’s been starving for production at the bottom. In the last week, the Mets rank No. 8 overall in strikeout percentage at 25.2%. Holmes has struck out 33 hitters in 20 ⅔ innings across four starts in June, including his absurd 15 against the Rockies on June 15. We’ll take him to keep that mojo alive on Thursday.

Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Braves are banking on a starter in their rotation who routinely works deep into games. Holmes’ strikeout rate is back up this year at 10.2 per nine frames as his chase and whiff rates are both effective. He dominates in zone control, yielding a modest 1.22 WHIP, which suppresses big inning risks from the Braves.

Canning has rebounded from a tough mid-June sweep, providing consistency across his recent starts, including five innings of three-run ball in his last outing.

Offensively, both teams are struggling to generate punch every night. Atlanta ranks near league-average in wRC+ per FanGraphs, while the Mets leaned on Juan Soto yesterday for their first offensive burst recently. 

Although the Mets’ bullpen has struggled in June — with a 5.09 ERA this month, ranking 25th in baseball — there are compelling reasons to still trust the Under 8.5 in tonight’s Mets–Braves game. Over the full season, the Mets sit among the top-seven bullpens in ERA (3.47), with a solid 1.28 WHIP, indicating their recent implosion is more blip than trend. Meanwhile, the Braves' bullpen ranks middle of the pack (3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), isn’t panic-inducing, and is now operating post-Iglesias with improved roles, using Dylan Lee and Daysbel Hernández in high-leverage spots.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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