Braves vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

Sean Treppedi | May 22, 2025

AJ Smith-Shawver brings momentum with his splitter into a matchup with a vulnerable Nationals lineup, offering the Braves an early edge. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Washington Nationals look to build off Tuesday’s 5-3 victory against the Atlanta Braves in the follow-up on Thursday, May 22, 

That victory win their fourth consecutive while the Braves, now 24–24, aim to rebound and improve their standing in the NL East, where they trail the division-leading Phillies by 6 ½ games.

Atlanta will deploy right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver (3–2, 2.33 ERA) to the mound. He’s been impressive thus far, boasting a 2.33 ERA and averaging over one strikeout per inning. Smith-Shawver recently pitched six strong innings against the Nationals, striking out six batters. 

Nationals' right-hander Trevor Williams (2–5, 5.91 ERA) challenges him amid a struggling season. In his last outing against Atlanta, Williams allowed four runs over 4⅓ innings. 

Let’s get into more detail on a player prop and a prediction for Thursday’s game.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Braves -1.5 (+108)
• Nationals +1.5  (-130)

Moneyline

• Braves (-154)
• Nationals (+130)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-106)
• Under 8.5 (-114)

Braves vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

• Braves: AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 2.33 ERA)
• Nationals: Trevor Williams (2-5, 5.91 ERA)

Braves vs. Nationals How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 22, 2025
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Nationals Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSN South, MASN 2
• Braves Record: 24-24
• Nationals Record: 22-27

Braves vs. Nationals Best MLB Prop Bet

• Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 at FanDuel)

Verdugo has become a surprise contributor after Atlanta signed him at the last minute before the season began. A player that had no takers through spring training is at least cashing in some timely hits for a regressing Braves lineup. 

The veteran left fielder has five knocks in his last four games. He’s hanging in elite company in plate discipline with premiere rates in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. All three of those are departments that Williams has been beyond less than adequate in this season according to Statcast. 

Plus, Verdugo has gone 2-for-9 in his career against the right-hander. He gets the advantage in the left vs. right matchup as he’s churning out a .302 average against righties. 

He’s a volatile player and has yet to hit a home run yet, but I’ll take his streaky ability to take advantage of either Williams or the second-worst bullpen in baseball.

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Smith-Shawver is settling in comfortably to this rotation, pitching consistently deep into ball games which includes an eight-inning, one-hit shutout foray three starts ago against the Reds. 

His early-game strength could spell trouble for a Nationals lineup that’s five games below .500 because they lack offensive support in the deeper spots. They have lacked in power hitting, trending downward this season in barrel rate and exit velocity on Statcast.

Smith-Shawver wields a cut-throat splitter that’s putting away hitters at an astronomical 30% clip.

The Nats have no plate discipline, swinging at meatballs at the third-highest rate along with being chase-happy. That splitter could pay dividends.

Pick:  Braves F5 (-158 at FanDuel)

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