Brent Rooker Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction: Will A's Star Exit Early?

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

Brent Rooker is a longshot to win the 2025 Home Run Derby, but has the mindset to pull off a run. / Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

There’s surely some underrated value on Brent Rooker in the 2025 Derby on Monday, armed with pull-side power and a burgeoning reputation on a team that’s been starved for stardom. 

Through July 12, he’s launched 20 home runs this season, peaking at a 440-foot blast, and looks headed toward his third consecutive year above 30 homers. His 14.7-degree average launch angle gives him a more ideal loft for Derby conditions, and every one of his longballs has sailed over the left-field wall — exactly the kind of pull-side geometry that’s conducive to the contest.

Rooker’s raw power is evident in his Statcast profile, but it doesn’t quite match the elite straight-line exit velocities of the top-tier Derby bats. His max exit velocity reached 112.4 mph this season, ranking him in the middle of the pack among the contending sluggers. What stands out more is his consistency — averaging 91.6 mph exit velocity and barreling the ball 14.6% of the time, good for an 88th percentile ranking among all MLB hitters. 

In a round where fractions of a second and feet of distance matter, Rooker’s inferior exit velos and bat speed could be differences.

He’s publicly expressed enthusiasm about participating, and that kind of intentional effort — extra rounds of batting-practice work, careful adjustments to maximize Derby power — has made for champions in the past. Derby veterans often point to the advantage gained by players who treat it like a performance crafted rather than an exhibition they just stumbled into, so I like the mindset behind Rooker’s chances. 

He feels like the kind of player who could surprise a favorite in round one, especially if he gets hot early, but I have him exiting early. 

Brent Rooker’s 2025 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Home Run Derby Champion: +1000
• To Make the Finals: +440
• To Make Semifinals: +128

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