Broncos vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 9

The Broncos are road favorites on Sunday.

The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix are favored in Week 9. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A pair of potential playoff teams in the AFC face off in Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season, as the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud host the Denver Broncos, who have won five games in a row and are atop the AFC West.

Bo Nix and the Broncos blew out the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8, and they’re one of the hottest teams in the NFL since starting the season at 1-2. Houston, on the other hand, started 0-3 but has won three of its last four, including a dominant win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8.

Stroud had arguably his best game of the season in that matchup, throwing for 318 yards and two scores against a stingy San Fran defense with both Nico Collins and Christian Kirk out of the lineup. 

Oddsmakers have set Denver as a slight favorite on the road in this matchup, but can the Broncos get back to .500 against the spread (3-4-1) this season against one of the best defenses in the NFL?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Week 9 matchup. 

Broncos vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Broncos -1.5 (-105)
• Texans +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Broncos: -118
• Texans: -102

Total

• 39.5 (Over -110/Under -10)

Broncos vs. Texans How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: NRG Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Broncos record: 6-2
• Texans record: 3-4

Broncos vs. Texans Betting Trends

• The Broncos are 3-4-1 against the spread this season. 
• The Texans are 3-4 against the spread this season.
• Denver is 1-1-1 against the spread on the road in 2025.
• The Texans are 2-1 against the spread at home in 2025.
• The UNDER is 5-3 in the Broncos’ games this season.
• The UNDER is 4-2-1 in the Texans’ games this season.  

Broncos vs. Texans Injury Reports

Broncos Injury Report

• Pat Surtain II – questionable
• Marvin Mims Jr. – questionable
• Nate Adkins – questionable

Texans Injury Report

• Nico Collins – questionable
• Christian Kirk – questionable
• Dylan Horton – questionable
• Joe Mixon – NFI

Broncos vs. Texans Key Player to Watch

Bo Nix, Quarterback, Denver Broncos

It’s been a weird season for Bo Nix, who is now up to 15 touchdown passes and just five picks in eight games. He has thrown for 1,803 yards after a four-score game against Dallas. Nix leads all quarterbacks in sack percentage (2.73%), and he’s a threat with his legs, rushing for 171 yards and three scores in 2025.

This is a tough matchup against a Houston defense that is No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play and EPA/Pass so far this season. Nix has struggled at times in the 2025 season (recently in the first three quarters against the New York Giants in Week 7), and he could have some issues against this Houston secondary.

Still, the Broncos are 6-2, and they need Nix to play more like an MVP candidate if they want to be taken seriously as contenders in the AFC. This is a chance for the Broncos quarterback to make a statement against an elite defense. 

Broncos vs. Texans Prediction and Pick

These teams both have elite defenses, as the Broncos sack the quarterback more than anyone in the NFL and rank fifth in the league in defensive EPA/Play. 

I’m worried about Stroud behind this Houston offensive line, which has struggled with sacks at times in 2025. Overall, the Texans are 12th in the league in sack percentage, but they also rank just 16th in the NFL in EPA/Play. 

Denver’s offense, despite some down halves, ranks eighth in the NFL in EPA/Play and has torched the Giants and Cowboys over the last five quarters of action, putting up over 70 points. 

This may end up being a low-scoring game (hence the total at 39.5), but I trust the Denver attack much more – especially if Collins remains out for Houston. The Texans are just 20th in EPA/Rush, and this is a tough matchup for them through the air as the Broncos are a top-five team in EPA/Pass in 2025. 

Pick: Broncos Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Unlock $200 in bonus bets — all without a promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet. If you win, you will receive $300 in bonus bets instantly +3 months of NBA League Pass.