Broncos Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Can Denver Improve on 2024 Campaign?)

Sean Treppedi | Jul 7, 2025

Bo Nix's pressure to take another step forward is critical to the Broncos' 2025 season. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Denver made a shocking late-season lunge to slip into the playoffs in Bo Nix’s rookie season last year. He showed flashes of promise in helping snap a nine-year postseason drought.

Now, bookmakers and bettors must evaluate what they can expect from Nix in year No. 2. With a full offseason under Sean Payton and a more stable offensive infrastructure, expectations are growing. However, the lingering question remains of whether Nix steps into the next echelon of NFL quarterbacks or hits a developmental wall.

Here’s how books are viewing him and the Broncos in 2025

Denver Broncos 2025 Win Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Over 9.5 (+105)
• Under 9.5 (-125)

Nix's Rookie Success With Defensive Prowess Reflects Lofty 2025 Expectations

This is a high win total for a team with so much uncertainty around them. A couple of minor additions have been made to the passing game, which I don’t think are worth mentioning, but Nix is projecting around 4,000 passing yards and 27 TDs in 2025. 

The best argument for Denver to cross this is the fact that its schedule ranks around the middle of the league in difficulty, which gives opportunity for another playoff push if Nix does, in fact, progress. With nine home games and a relatively manageable midseason slate, the Broncos have a solid opportunity to capitalize. 

However, the AFC West remains tough sledding, with two games against the Kansas City Chiefs and another challenging series against an improved Los Angeles Chargers team.

Nix benefited from one of the league’s best pass protection units last year, which was crucial in giving him time to make plays, so maintaining that level of protection will be vital this season. But this all really comes down to how the defense sustains itself: it was top-three in both yards per play and points allowed last year. Zach Allen and Patrick Surtain II were big parts of that success, though the new additions — especially in the linebacker corps — need to prove they can tighten coverage and stay healthy.

Payton’s track record for weak records is pretty well-known at this point, and it should serve as a warning. He reached 10 or more wins in only six of 15 seasons with Drew Brees, frequently stumbling despite having a top-tier quarterback and solid teams.

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