Bucks vs. Pacers Playoff Odds: Series Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Best Bet

The Pacers are favored to knock off the Bucks in the first round.

The Pacers are favored to knock off the Bucks in the first round. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

A playoff rematch is taking place in the Eastern Conference, as the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers will face off for the second straight season in the playoffs. 

Last season, Indiana (the No. 6 seed in the 2023-24 campaign) knocked off a banged-up Bucks squad that didn’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Unfortunately for the Bucks, they may be at less than full strength again this season, as All-Star guard Damian Lillard has missed weeks due to a blood clot, and it’s unclear if he will return in this series. 

The Pacers are favored in the betting market after earning the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in this matchup. However, the Bucks had the upper hand in the season series between these division rivals.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, trends and my best bet for this first-round matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bucks vs. Pacers Series Odds

• Bucks: +155
• Pacers: -190

Bucks vs. Pacers Correct Score Odds

• Pacers in 7: +340
• Pacers in 5: +400
• Bucks in 6: +475
• Pacers in 6: +475
• Bucks in 7: +700
• Pacers in 4: +800
• Bucks in 5: +1100
• Bucks in 4: +1700

Bucks vs. Pacers Trends to Watch

Milwaukee Bucks

All things considered, the Bucks closed out the regular season on a high note, posting the No. 11 net rating in the league following the All-Star break.

Ultimately, this series is going to come down to whether or not Damian Lillard can suit up. Kevin Porter Jr. has taken on a bigger role in the Bucks’ offense as of late, but Lillard is a completely different level of player. Milwaukee did win three of the four meetings between these teams this season, but it also lost in the first round of the playoffs against the Pacers last season with Giannis out and Dame banged up. 

For game-to-game action, here’s a couple of Bucks trends to know: 

• Milwaukee is 17-14-1 against the spread when favored at home this season
• The Bucks are 10-7-1 against the spread as road underdogs this season
• Milwaukee is just 9-13 against the spread when favored on the road

The Bucks are going to run on Giannis on the offensive end, but it is worth noting that they were the best shooting team (No. 1 in effective field goal percentage) in the league after the All-Star break.  

Indiana Pacers

Can the Pacers beat the Bucks for the second straight season?

Indiana’s defense (No. 8 in defensive rating after the All-Star break) took a massive step forward this season, and the Pacers have a pretty deep bench that can make things tough on the top-heavy Bucks squad.

Tyrese Haliburton has found his All-NBA form after a slow start to the campaign, and the Pacers were a top-10 team in net rating after the All-Star break. However, the Pacers were under .500 against the spread (13-16-2) when favored at home in the regular season and have struggled guarding Antetokounmpo.

In his last 10 games against the Pacers, Giannis is averaging 36.9 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game. If they can’t slow him down, Indiana could be in for a long series.  

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

If Lillard doesn’t play in this series, I just can’t back the Bucks to win – even though Giannis has played at an MVP level all season long.

Indiana has so many more options that it can rely on offensively, and the Pacers have played their best basketball of the season down the stretch, ranking in the top 10 in the league in net rating.

Milwaukee’s shooting is something to watch (No. 1 in effective field goal percentage since the All-Star break), but it’s hard to trust the likes of A.J. Green. Gary Trent Jr., Pat Connaughton, and others are to show up every night in a seven-game series.

On top of that, the Bucks’ numbers down the stretch of the season are a little skewed by an eight-game winning streak that saw them beat one team that was over .500 (Minnesota) and also at full strength in that game.

Meanwhile, the Pacers went 20-9 after the break, and Tyrese Haliburton averaged 20.6 points and 11.0 assists per game.

Last season, we saw the Pacers’ pressure defense and run-and-gun style become an issue for the Bucks and New York Knicks in the playoffs. Without Lillard (unless he makes a shocking return from a blood clot), the Pacers can get the Bucks out of their rhythm.

Giannis is the best player in this series, but I don’t trust his supporting cast enough to win a seven-game series. 

Best Bet: Pacers to win series (-190 at DraftKings), Pacers in 6 games (+475)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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