Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

The Pacers are favored in Game 1 on Saturday.

The Pacers are favored in Game 1 on Saturday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Two divisional rivals face off in the first round of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, as Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers – the No. 4 seed – host the No. 5-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee won’t have Damian Lillard in Game 1, but it got an extremely positive update on the star guard on Thursday, as he’s been cleared from a blood clot and could return later on in this series. 

Amazing: Milwaukee's Damian Lillard has been cleared of his deep vein thrombosis and is no longer on blood-thinning medication, sources tell ESPN. Lillard is out for Game 1 Saturday against Indiana and will have a period of time to resume contact workouts and ramp up for return. pic.twitter.com/fbeQg0mvsn

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 17, 2025

During the regular season, the Bucks took three of the four meetings between these teams, but Milwaukee stumbled a bit down the stretch, nearly falling to the No. 6 seed in the East.

Oddsmakers have set the Pacers as favorites at home in this game, and it’s important to remember that Indiana made the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2023-24 season, knocking off the Bucks (who didn’t have Giannis) and the New York Knicks.

Antetokounmpo has missed time in the playoffs in each of the last few seasons, but he appears to be good to go against an Indiana team that he has dominated over the last two seasons. 

Here’s a look at the odds, player props to consider (including one for Giannis), and my prediction for this Game 1 matchup on Saturday afternoon. 

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Bucks +5.5 (-108)
• Pacers -5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Bucks: +185
• Pacers: -225

Total

• 224 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bucks vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 19
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Bucks record: 48-34
• Pacers record: 50-32

Bucks vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

• Damian Lillard – out
• Tyler Smith – out

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Ben Sheppard – probable

Bucks vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 Points (-115)

If you’re looking to bet on a Bucks prop, the two-time league MVP is the easy choice. 

With Lillard still out of the lineup, Antetokounmpo could be in line for a huge game against the Indiana Pacers.

Let’s start with how Giannis has dominated the Pacers over the last two seasons. Since the start of the 2023-24 campaign, Antetokounmpo has averaged 36.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game while scoring 32 or more points in five of his nine games against the Pacers. 

Indiana does not have a single good matchup for him (who does?), and Giannis finished the regular season averaging 31.5 points per game over his last 10 games. 

If the Bucks want to win this game, Giannis is going to have to be special, and he’s taken advantage of this matchup too many times for me to pass him up at this line on Saturday. 

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• TJ McConnell OVER 6.5 Points (-115)

McConnell has played a big role for the Pacers over the last few seasons, and he finished the regular season averaging 9.1 points per game.

Not only did McConnell average more than two points over this prop line for this game, but he also finished with seven or more points in 23 of his final 32 games (dating back to early February). 

I’d expect the veteran to play a big enough role to clear this prop. Last postseason, McConnell played 20.5 minutes per game and averaged 11.8 points per contest. 

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Every meeting between these teams has gone OVER this total this season, and I’m buying a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.

The Bucks closed the regular season pretty weakly, finishing 23rd in the league in defensive rating over their last 10.

That could become an issue against a Pacers team that loves to push the pace and can get a bunch of easy looks with Tyrese Haliburton running the show.

Haliburton and the Pacers came on after the All-Star break, ranking seventh in the NBA in net rating during that stretch. A big reason why? Their defense was a lot better, ranking eighth in the NBA.

Still, these teams combined for 246, 232, 229, and 245 points in their regular-season meetings. Yes, playoff games are often lower scoring, but this total is way down from where it would be in the regular season. 

It’s worth noting that both of these teams hit the OVER at a 51.8 percent clip or higher this season. 

Pick: OVER 224 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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