Byron Buxton Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction: How to Bet on Twins Star on Monday

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

Byron Buxton is on the older side of the Home Run Derby contestants, but his cycle over the weekend gives him all the momentum. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Through the All-Star Break, Byron Buxton stands with 21 home runs, including a colossal 479-foot missile earlier this season, and added four more that traveled at least 425 feet.

His Statcast profile confirms that this is no fluke: his 55.3% hard hit rate is in the 96th percentile while pumping out a 92.1 mph average exit velocity. His max of 112.5 mph confirms he’s capable of thunderous contact. 

Buxton’s launch angle average sits at 17.9 degrees, giving him the finely tuned loft that Derby hitters find success with. Unlike some heavy swingers in this field who produce low-line drives, he achieves fly balls consistently, and his pull-hitting approach meshes well with Truist Park’s outfield dimensions. He also comes into Monday with all the momentum given that he just had a five-for-five game with a homer and a cycle.

On the downside, his age and endurance may linger as question marks. Buxton turns 31 in December, which leans on the older side if you look at past Derby winners — even though Teoscar Hernández broke that mold just last year. 

While Buxton appears healthy now, the Derby’s multi-round grind could still test his stamina. 

Still, the Derby favors those who can find rhythm, a quality Buxton has rediscovered of late. He’s on a torrid run — 11 of his 21 home runs have come since June, and his OPS stands at .925, ranking him tied for sixth in MLB. 

Buxton is a top sleeper in my book as his resume reads like a collection of tools built for BP dominance: bat speed, loft and recent form. If he keeps rolling and remains energized through each session, there’s a path for him to win. 

Let’s look at his odds for each checkpoint of the Derby.

Byron Buxton’s 2025 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Home Run Derby Champion: +850
• To Make the Finals: +340
• To Make Semifinals: -115

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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