Cal Raleigh Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction: Mariners Star Set as Favorite

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

Cal Raleigh is the favorite to win the 2025 Home Run Derby. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Cal Raleigh will arrive at his first Home Run Derby as the favorite to win, which is truly a remarkable statement for a catcher. The Seattle Mariners’ backstop has been slugging his way to a historic first half that’s captured the eyes of the sports world. 

He leads the majors with 38 home runs entering the break, which is one behind Barry Bonds’ all-time best in 2001. Raleigh’s .634 slugging percentage is amongst the top-three overall players with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Statcast data backs the eye test: Raleigh ranks in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity and barrels the ball at an elite 20% rate. His combination of power and lift — he leads MLB in fly ball percentage — is a dream fit for the Derby format, which rewards consistent loft and pull-side authority.

But Raleigh’s candidacy is about more than just what we can value on paper. He’s got the plate temperament that could play an underrated role in his success. The Derby often favors players who can maintain rhythm and composure — especially with the newer format. He’s unlikely to get swept up in the moment or try to overswing, which is a common downfall in the event. His swing path is compact and repeatable — attributes that bode well for a batting-practice environment where consistency matters more than the sheer explosiveness.

If you’re more convinced by historical trends, it’s worth noting that no catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby. Raleigh has caught nearly every game for Seattle this year and while he’s built like a brick outhouse and hasn’t shown signs of wearing down, this format — especially if he advances through three rounds — can test even well-rested players who aren’t catchers. 

Adley Rutschman turned heads in 2023 with a switch-hitting display that nearly stole the show, while Salvador Perez launched 28 bombs in a losing effort in 2021. Neither advanced past the first round, but both proved that the position is no longer a disqualifier in this event. Raleigh’s power production this season dwarfs both of theirs.

Cal Raleigh’s 2025 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Home Run Derby Champion: +300
• To Make the Finals: +118
• To Make Semifinals: -265

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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