Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 30

Sean Treppedi | Jun 30, 2025

Bryan Reynolds has been on fire at the plate over the last week, so we're looking to the +520 value on his home run prop against the Cardinals on Monday. / Philip G. Pavely-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates come to blows after both having swept the Guardians and the Mets, respectively. 

St. Louis is third in the NL Central and its timely hitting has helped seize five of its last seven games. Pittsburgh has also won five of its last seven games as Oneil Cruz and Brian Reynolds exploded against the Mets.

Erick Fedde (3-7, 4.11 ERA) steps to the mound for St. Louis. He’s struggled recently, posting a 7.07 ERA over his last three outings, including a rough 3 ⅔-inning, seven-run leak against the Cubs. While he’s historically pitched well against the Pirates — owning a 2.05 ERA in four career starts and a 1.64 ERA at PNC Park — his recent form raises some concerns.

Andrew Heaney (3-7, 4.48 ERA) enters following a rough stretch that includes an 0-3 record and 10.93 ERA over his last three outings, most recently allowing seven runs in four innings against the Brewers. While he’s been effective at PNC Park in seven overall starts, Heaney has struggled mightily against the Cardinals, going 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in three career appearances.

Here’s how we’re betting on this matchup.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Cardinals -1.5 (+146)
• Pirates +1.5 (-176)

Moneyline

• Cardinals (-108)
• Pirates (-108)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-122)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Cardinals vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Cardinals: Erick Fedde (3-7, 4.11 ERA)
• Pirates: Andrew Heaney (3-7, 4.48 ERA)

Cardinals vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Monday, June 30, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, FDSN Midwest
• Cardinals Record: 47-38
• Pirates Record: 35-50

Cardinals vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Bryan Reynolds Home Run (+520 at FanDuel)

Reynolds is the key bat to watch in this ballgame, as he’s heating up with a .419 average over his last seven games and has hit two home runs in his last three games. He’s become one of the game’s consistent power hitters, owning a .528 xSLG and a .476 xwOBAcon — ranking within the top 10% of both advanced metrics per Statcast.

His June 27 blast traveled 402 ft at 106 mph exit velocity, and his June 29 homer flew 421 ft at 109.6 mph — that power isn’t flukey. He’s never faced Fedde before, but considering how contact comes in higher quantities at PNC and Fedde’s susceptibility against high exit velocity, Reynolds has tremendous longshot value.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Fedde was shelled by the Cubs in his last outing, revealing some major issues with command and an inability to miss bats. His recent play has also exposed hard contact, ranking poorly in exit velocity and expected batting average per Statcast. As far as run support goes, the Cardinals offense has posted some sturdy outings here and there, but it lacks consistent power and struggles against left-handed pitching. For what it’s worth, Heaney pitches significantly better at home, where he owns a 2.95 ERA and limits hard contact sufficiently.

The Pirates scored 30 runs in their shocking sweep over the Mets, but overall still rank poorly in offensive metrics like wRC+ and power. Despite offensive concerns, the Pirates’ contact-heavy approach and Fedde’s weaknesses make Pittsburgh the better side to back in this matchup. It’s essentially a pick’em, so I’m taking the hotter team at home. 

Pick: Pirates (-108 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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