Chiefs vs Broncos Odds Say KC Will Rest Patrick Mahomes and Key Starters in Week 18

Brian Giuffra | Dec 30, 2024

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is expected to sit out Week 18 based on odds. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Chiefs play the Broncos in a critical Week 18 matchup that could determine the fate of three team’s playoff hopes. Only, it appears one side won’t be going all-out in this showdown. 

The Broncos are set as -8.5 point home favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook in this game. The last time these teams played in Week 10, the Chiefs were -9.5 point favorites and eeked out a 16-14 win thanks to a last-second blocked field goal. 

That 18-point difference in game odds says one thing: Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing in Week 18 and likely neither are most of the Chiefs' top players. 

The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs and are thus playing for nothing in Week 18. Well, the only thing they’re playing for is to stay healthy for the playoffs. 

ProFootballTalk reported the Chiefs are “very likely” to “rest key starters” in Week 18, including Mahomes. Andy Reid also has a history of doing so when his team has clinched the top spot in the playoffs. No official announcement has been made by Reid yet. 

If the Chiefs rest their players as expected, that will hurt the Dolphins and Bengals playoff odds. They both need the Broncos to lose in Week 18 to have a chance at making the playoffs.

If the Broncos lose and the Dolphins win, the Dolphins make the playoffs. If the Broncos and Dolphins lose and the Bengals win, Cincinnati will make the playoffs. If all three lose, the Broncos will make the playoffs. 

There’s certainly something to be said for the competitive disadvantage for those teams if the Chiefs rest key players. But you can’t blame the Chiefs either. They just played three games in 11 days and Mahomes has been dealing with an ankle injury. They, of course, want him and their other stars to be as healthy as possible for the playoffs as they seek to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. 

As for the Broncos, this is a big boon for them. If they beat a shorthanded Chiefs team, they’re in the playoffs and will face the Bills in the first round. Win that game and they’ll have momentum facing a Chiefs opponent that will have been off for a long stretch. 

The Chiefs should announce their plan early in the week. But the odds say the decision has already been made to rest their top players.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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