Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 11

Iain MacMillan | Nov 11, 2025

The Chiefs are road favorites against the Broncos in NFL Week 11 action in the AFC West. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have officially taken over as the betting favorites to win the AFC West and break the nine-year streak that's currently held by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are still very much in the mix, only slightly behind them on the list of odds.

That makes this Sunday's divisional showdown between these two teams a massive one. If the Broncos win, they're going to be even bigger favorites to win the AFC West. If the Chiefs win, they'll likely be back in the driver's seat to win the division for the 10th straight season.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this AFC West showdown.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

• Chiefs -3.5 (-112)
• Broncos +3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Chiefs -200
• Broncos +166

Total

• OVER 44.5 (-109)
• UNDER 44.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Broncos How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, November 16
• Game Time: 4:25 pm ET
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Chiefs Record: 5-4
• Broncos Record: 8-2

Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Trends

• Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Chiefs' last five games
• Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. Chiefs
• Chiefs are 17-2 straight up in their last 19 games vs. Broncos
• Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games
• The UNDER is 9-3 in the Broncos' last 12 games
• Broncos have won 10 straight home games

Chiefs vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• Isiah Pacheco, RB - Questionable
• Jawaan Taylor, OT - Questionable
• Omarr Norman-Lott, OT - IR
• Nazeeh Johnson, S - IR-R
• Brandon George, LB - IR

Broncos Injury Report

• Pat Surtain II, CB - Questionable
• Marvin Mims Jr., WR - Questionable
• Nate Adkins, TE - Questionable
• Alex Singleton, LB - Questionable
• J.K. Dobbins, RB - Questionable

Chiefs vs. Broncos Key Player to Watch

• Bo Nix, QB - Denver Broncos

Bo Nix had high expectations heading into this season after a successful rookie campaign. Unfortunately, his production has dropped in 2025. His completion percentage has dropped from 66.3% to 60.9%, he's averaging 0.6 yards per throw, and he's on pace to throw four more interceptions. The Broncos can only go so far with an elite defense; they need better play from their second-year quarterback if they want to go on a deep playoff run.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm backing the Chiefs to win and cover on the road:

The Denver Broncos may just be the fraudulent team in the NFL at this point in the season. Their defense is truly elite, but their offense is downright atrocious, ranking 19th in offensive DVOA, 18th in EPA, 28th in success rate, and 19th in yards per play, averaging 5.3 yards per snap. Bo Nix may not be the answer at quarterback. He's 25th in EPA+CPOE composite, which is behind the likes of Carson Wentz, Spencer Rattle, and Caleb Williams.

Meanwhile, this is a great spot to buy into the Chiefs. Andy Reid has historically been extremely good off a BYE week, and while their record this season may not be extremely impressive, their metrics have been far better than they were last year. They rank fifth in overall DVOA and third in EPA per play. I'm surprised they aren't bigger favorites in this spot.

Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-112) via Caesars

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!