Chiefs vs. Cowboys Best NFL Prop Bets for Thanksgiving Day in NFL Week 13 (Bet on George Pickens)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Kansas City Chiefs-Dallas Cowboys matchup on Thanksgiving in Week 13.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens is a great prop target on Thanksgiving. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Thanksgiving Day could bring some offensive fireworks, as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Dallas Cowboys at 4:30 p.m. EST with the total set at 52.5.

These are two solid passing offenses led by Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes, and the Cowboys have hung some big numbers on teams through the air with their duo of George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.

Both players should be on the radar for bettors in Week 13, but Dallas’ defense has also been shaky this season, opening an interesting opportunity for Kansas City on Thursday.

Can the Chiefs build on a comeback win over the Indianapolis Colts where they were able to get Rashee Rice going late?

I have a few props that I love for this matchup, including a pick for Pickens – Dallas’ breakout star in 2025. 

Let’s dive into the latest odds and my breakdowns for each of these picks on Thanksgiving.  

Best NFL Prop Bets for Chiefs vs. Cowboys

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Patrick Mahomes OVER 267.5 Passing Yards (-112)
• Javonte Williams OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• George Pickens OVER 5.5 Receptions (+110)

Patrick Mahomes OVER 267.5 Passing Yards (-112)

This is a great matchup for Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game, as Dallas’ defense has been extremely vulnerable through the air all season long.

The Cowboys rank:

• 29th in passing yards allowed
• 25th in completions allowed
• 26th in opponent completion percentage
• 28th in EPA/Pass
• 31st in passing touchdowns allowed

So, Mahomes should look to the air early and often, especially since the Dallas run defense has looked much better since trading for Quinnen Williams at the deadline.

Mahomes has thrown for 2,977 yards in 11 games this season, clearing 267.5 passing yards in four of his last five games and six games overall. Mahomes has just two games this season (both without Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice) where he did not throw for at least 250 yards.

I think he could have a huge game on Thanksgiving, especially if the Dallas offense keeps up enough to turn this into a shootout. 

Javonte Williams OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Chiefs held Jonathan Taylor in check in Week 12 (58 rushing yards on 16 carries), but don’t let that performance fool you when it comes to this matchup.

Kansas City ranks just 21st in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. 

That sets up well for Javonte Williams, who has been a bellcow for this Dallas offense, playing 75.3 percent of the snaps in 2025. Williams has carried the ball at least 20 times in back-to-back weeks, and he’s cleared 70.5 rushing yards in three games in a row.

Williams has at least 83 rushing yards in all three of those games, and he’s averaging an impressive 5.0 yards per carry this season. The former second-round pick should have a big role on Thanksgiving, and I love him at this number to clear 70.5 rushing yards for the ninth time in 12 games. 

Williams is averaging 81.5 rushing yards per game in 2025. 

George Pickens OVER 5.5 Receptions (+110)

The 2025 season has been a fun one for George Pickens, as he’s already up to 1,054 receiving yards and eight scores in 11 games.

Pickens has become the perfect complement to CeeDee Lamb in the Dallas offense, and he’s actually looked like the No. 1 option at times in recent weeks. The former second-round pick has at least nine targets in each of his last four games, coming down with seven, six, nine and nine receptions in those contests.

In fact, he has six games this season with at least six catches. So, getting him at plus money in this market in a potential shootout seems like a pretty good deal.

The Cowboys are third in the NFL in passing yards, so I’d expect Pickens to get plenty of looks on Thanksgiving as Dallas aims to pull off another upset.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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