SI

Clemson vs. SMU Final Score Prediction for ACC Championship Game

Reed Wallach

Nov 30, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs running back Brashard Smith (1) in action during the game between the SMU Mustangs and the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Nov 30, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs running back Brashard Smith (1) in action during the game between the SMU Mustangs and the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Clemson and SMU meet in the ACC Championship on Saturday night with College Football Playoff implications aplenty for both teams. 

The Mustangs haven’t lost an ACC game in its first season and now will look to take down the stalwart of the conference in Clemson, who has won seven of the last nine ACC Championships.Let’s get you set for this title game with a look at the updated odds and a final score prediction.

Clemson vs. SMU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Clemson: +2.5 (-102)
  • SMU: -2.5 (-120)

Moneyline

  • Clemson:+120
  • SMU: -144

Total: 55.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Clemson vs. SMU Final Score Prediction

Clemson has struggled against elite defenses all season, which SMU falls into. 

Not only is this Mustangs defense tops in EPA/Rush, it has an aggressive defensive line that ranks top 25 in the country in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus. This season, Clemson has failed to post a positive EPA/Play mark against the four pass rushes that rank top 50 in the country it has faced this season in Georgia, Louisville, Pittsburgh and South Carolina. 

Further, the Clemson defense is far worse than we are used to, which can make for a long night for Dabo Swinney’s group.

Here’s what I wrote in our betting preview earlier this week. 

The Tigers' rush defense is bottom 20 in the country in explosive rush rate, which is a big part of the SMU offense that has a capable runner in Jennings at quarterback as well as running back Brashard Smith, who is averaging six yards per carry and has at least a 19 yard run in all but one game this season. 

Meanwhile, I believe far too much pressure will fall on Klubnik’s arm as the SMU defensive line ranks top 15 in the country in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus. The ‘Stangs are allowing less than three yards per carry and are tops in EPA/Rush, a huge edge against a Clemson offense that is typically buoyed by running back Phil Mafah. However, Mafah is starting to slow down as the season goes on, averaging about three yards per carry over the last three games. 

SMU is far more versatile and has the edge over a Clemson team that has failed to live up to the hype when it faces similar competition. 

The SMU offense has been on a roll since going to Jennings full time, averaging north of 40 points per game and scoring 28 or more in each. I think the team out-paces the Tigers on offense and wins the ACC Championship, punching its ticket to the College Football Playoff.

Final Score Prediction: SMU 34, Clemson 23

More College Football Stories

manual

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Published
Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.

Home/Betting