Clippers vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

The Clippers are 11-10 against the spread as road underdogs this season.

The Clippers are underdogs in Game 1. / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Arguably, the most intriguing first-round series is in the Western Conference, as the No. 4-seeded Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic host the No. 5-seeded Los Angeles Clippers and Kawhi Leonard on Saturday afternoon.

The Clippers closed the season on a high note, beating the Golden State Warriors in Game 82 to earn the No. 5 seed. Los Angeles had the best bet rating in the NBA over its last 10 games, and it posted an insane 26-11 record in the 37 games that Leonard appeared in.

James Harden also played at an All-NBA level this season, keeping a Clippers team that many pegged for the play-in, in the mix for a top-six seed all season long.

The Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth with just three games left in the regular season, and they proceeded to close out the campaign strong to hang on to the No. 4 spot.

Denver’s supporting cast has questions – Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon have both been banged up – but Jokic is the best player in the world and could be the great equalizer in any series. 

Denver is a slight favorite in the series – and in Game 1 – but can it hold off this surging Clippers squad?

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Saturday’s Game 1.  

Clippers vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Clippers +2.5 (-112)
• Nuggets -2.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Clippers: +120
• Nuggets: -142

Total

• 223.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Clippers vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 19
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Clippers record: 50-32
• Nuggets record: 50-32

Clippers vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Clippers Injury Report

• None to report

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II – out

Clippers vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Los Angeles Clippers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Ivica Zubac OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-125)

During the regular season, Ivica Zubac averaged an impressive 12.6 rebounds on 21.0 chances per game, clearing this line twice against Denver with 15 and 13 boards in those matchups.

Zubac has played a huge role for the Clippers all season long, and I expect him to play heavy minutes to not only deal with Nikola Jokic in the paint, but also to help get the Clippers’ pick-and-roll game going on offense. 

The big man has been consistent all season long, averaging 12.7 boards per game since the start of March. 

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 21.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

Is there some value in this market for three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic? 

This season, Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double, putting up 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game. Yet, oddsmakers have him set a little lower than his season averages in this prop against the Clippers and big man Ivica Zubac.

If the Nuggets are going to win, they’re going to need all-around dominance from Jokic, and he did clear this line in one of his three games against the Clips. 

Since the All-Star break, Jokic has found another gear, averaging 29.2 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. He’s going to play heavy minutes, and in a close game, I default to him being in the mix for a triple-double. 

Clippers vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

The Nuggets did not close out the regular season strong, ranking 19th in net rating after the All-Star break – posting one of the 10-worst defensive ratings in the NBA in the process.

While Denver is favored in this game, it has struggled as a home favorite (16-19-1 against the spread) in the 2024-25 campaign.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are over .500 as road underdogs despite posting a subpar ATS record on the road overall. Los Angeles has thrived when Leonard plays this season, posting a net rating of +12.7 when he’s on the floor.

For comparison, the NBA’s best net rating for any team this season was the Oklahoma City Thunder – at +12.7. 

The Nuggets’ lack of depth is worrisome in this series, and even though Jokic is the best player in the world, Murray may be the most important player in this series. If the Nuggets guard is unable to have a few big scoring games, Denver is going to struggle to beat this Clippers team that was third in the NBA in defensive rating in the regular season. 

I lean with the Clips to cover in Game 1 – and potentially pull off the upset – in Denver. 

Pick: Clippers +2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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