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Commanders Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Will Washington Take Step Back?)
Jayden Daniels made the biggest splash in 2025, leading the Commanders to their first NFC Championship game since 1992.
The Commanders surged from four wins in ‘23 to a 12-5 season with Coach of the Year recipient Dan Quinn running the show while Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year, threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and displayed plenty of rushing prowess. It was their first double-digit record since Robert Griffin III led them to 10 wins off of his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2012.
But how much of the Commanders’ magic run in 2024 can we use to project their success in 2025? Here are the projections.
Washington Commanders 2025 Win Total
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Commanders Remain Ambiguous in the NFC After Surging Season
Daniels’ play aside, the Commanders housed an average roster and a defense that may regress last year. One could argue that opponents may be able to crack the code on Daniels with an offseason to study and prepare a game-plan against him and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme. It’s certainly possible we could see regression from both Daniels and other position groups if that narrative proves true.
The Commanders are balancing the tightwire of 10 wins (9.5). Their close-game success last season may not be sustainable.
Notable offseason upgrades like Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and the addition of versatile wide receiver Deebo Samuel, if healthy and returning to form, add intrigue to the offense, but the overall roster depth remains uncertain. Washington’s 16th-easiest schedule offers a competitive edge in the NFC East, where they hold +220 odds to win the division. This combination of coaching, quarterback play, and schedule strength makes the Commanders a tempting pick to top their division, especially given the relative weakness of their rivals.
Despite reaching the NFC title game in 2024, Washington faces stiff competition from teams with more talent, reflected in their longer +950 odds to make the Super Bowl. I’d say they are the best value pick of the NFC if you’re looking for a dark horse.
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Sean is a writer for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has written and edited sports betting and sports news editorial for the New York Post, Newsweek, Action Network, Philadelphia Inquirer, Chicago Tribune, and Athlon Sports. Sean lives in the New York City area and primarily focuses on pinpointing market value across the NFL, MLB, NHL, and college football.