Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Marcus Semien Set to Go Deep vs. Dodgers)

Reed Wallach | Jun 11, 2024

Jun 9, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers second base Marcus Semien (2) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the second inning against the San Francisco Giants at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

A full slate of baseball brings plenty of home run possibilities.

I'm eyeing the big matchup between the Rangers and Dodgers on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, a prime matchup for Marcus Semien to take Dodgers' starter James Paxton yard.

However, other righty sluggers can tee off against lefty pitchers like Semien, including Ryan Mountcastle and Loure Gurriel.

Here's how I'm attacking Tuesday's slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, June 11th

• Ryan Mountcastle (+680)
• Lourdes Gurriel (+560)
• Marcus Semien (+560)

Ryan Mountcastle

Max Fried has looked the part after an injury-riddled 2022, but he has been somewhat fortunate with elite hard-hit metrics. However, that's giving us plenty of opportunity to key in on the Orioles lineup that features the second-best OPS mark in baseball this season against lefties.

Ryan Mountcastle is my target, ranking in the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage, per MLBStatcast and posting .297/.357/.516 slashes against left-handed pitchers. In a limited sample size, he has crushed three home runs in 64 at-bats against lefties.

Fried has been elite, no doubt about that, but we can pounce on inflated odds because of it with Mountcastle.

Lourdes Gurriel

Any time Gurriel faces a lefty pitcher, I'm inclined to bet on him to go deep. He is hitting only .247 on the year with nine home runs, but when you zoom in, he is raking against southpaws.

Gurriel is hitting .320 with four home runs in 75 at-bats against lefties this season, posting a .547 slugging percentage. The righty has hit all of his home runs to left field where he will have the angle to do so against a lefty.

He draws a matchup against Angels starter Jose Suarez (23rd percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage), who has an ERA of 6.54 on the year. Further, Los Angeles has a bottom-five bullpen in terms of ERA.

He has already crushed three home runs in June, more than he did in all of May, I'm going to keep riding the hot hand of the Diamondbacks.

Marcus Semien

Semien's numbers are a bit down from a big 2023, but he remains one of the most dangerous sluggers against left-handed pitching in the bigs.

Semien is hitting .350 against lefties with a slugging percentage of .600 to go with four home runs on the year. He is doing nearly all of his damage in a third of the plate appearances (87 PAs vs. lefties vs. 204 against righties).

He draws soft-tossing James Paxton, who can't strike out many batters anymore, 14% and is allowing hard contact on 41% of balls in play, 28th percentile. With an xERA way higher than the actual ERA, 5.34 xERA against an ERA of 4.19, Paxton is ripe to get tagged by an elite hitter like Semien.

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