Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Paul Goldschmidt Set to Go Deep?)

May 29, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) at bat during the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
May 29, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) at bat during the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Another day, another appetizing slate of Major League Baseball.

In today's home run column, I'm focusing on a trio of righty sluggers in advantageous matchups with the potential to crack one over the fence. Paul Goldschmidt's numbers are down, but I can't look past his underlying metrics that show he may be primed for a big summer.

Here's my three favorite home run prop bets on Thursday:

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, June 13th

  • Paul Goldschmidt (+520)
  • Ketel Marte (+520)
  • Teoscar Hernandez (+3700

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt only has seven homers this season with .225/.300/.344 splits, but he is still crushing the ball.

The veteran right-hander is in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit percentage, per MLBStatcast, and has hit six of his seven long balls against right-handed pitchers.

Enter Mitch Keller, who has been allowing hard contact on 41% of balls in play, per MLBStat cast, and owed a ton of regression after posting a 4.15 xERA, far worse than his 3.16 ERA.

Goldschmidt is going to get going shortly, and the matchup sets up nicely Thursday.

Ketel Marte

Marte has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. He has crushed 14 home runs with an xBA of .299, 95th percentile, and an xSLG of .521, 93rd percentile.

He can hit to all parts of the field and is making hard contact on omre than 54% of balls in play.

In June, he is hitting .389 with a slugging percentage of .750 and four home runs. He won't keep up that hot of a run, but this matchup is too good to pass up against an Angels pitching staff that is struggling, led by starter Griffin Canning.

Canning is in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, regularly allowing hard contact, which sets up nicely for a guy who has the profile of Marte.

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez has been as big of a benefactor as anyone to joining the vaunted Dodgers lineup.

Hitting behind Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, among other stars, Hernandez has crushed 17 home runs as he faces more hittable pitches.

He ranks 96th in barrel percentage and ranks in the 93rd percentile in xSLG. The Rangers shaky pitching staff, bottom half of the league in total ERA, makes me bullish we can see fireworks at Dodger Stadium, prime for Hernandez to cash in.


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Published
Reed Wallach

REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.