Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper on Tuesday)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run in the 2025 season, including a pick for Aaron Judge.

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is a solid home run prop target on Tuesday. / John Froschauer-Imagn Images

Can New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge go deep once again on Tuesday night?

Judge has a great matchup against a lefty in Patrick Corbin on Tuesday, and he’s one of several players that I’m looking to bet on to hit a home run on May 20.

Every day here at SI Betting, we share our favorite players to go deep that night, and while these props are tough to predict, they usually offer a pretty solid payout. 

Judge is a superstar that you can justify betting on nearly every game, but there are a couple of other targets, including a Philadelphia Phillies star, that I’m eyeing as well on Tuesday,

Here’s a complete breakdown of each home run prop to bet for tonight’s action. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, May 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)
• Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+320)
• Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)

This season, Judge has already hit a whopping 15 home runs, and the Yankees star is hitting a ridiculous .401 with a 1.242 OPS.

But, what if I told you that his numbers against lefties are even better?

That’s right, against southpaws, Judge is hitting .464 with a 1.214 slugging percentage and a crazy 1.809 OPS. He’s already hit six home runs against left-handed pitching in just 28 at-bats. So, that’s an average of one homer every five at-bats.

On Tuesday, Judge is taking on Texas’s Corbin, who has given up six long balls in seven starts and has allowed a homer to Judge in just 10 appearances against each other. While Corbin has actually pitched pretty well this season, he’s been a pitcher to fade in recent seasons, allowing 25 or more home runs in each of his last four completed campaigns. 

Given how well Judge has fared against lefties, he’s worth a look in this prop on Tuesday night. 

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Bryce Harper and the Phillies have an ideal matchup for home runs on Tuesday night, as they’re taking on the Colorado Rockies at the homer-friendly Coors Field.

This season, Coors Field ranks 10th in MLB in home run mark at 105, meaning five percent more home runs than league average happen there, according to Statcast.

That’s great news for Harper, who has seven long balls in the 2025 season and has fared well against Tuesday’s starter for the Rockies, Antonio Senzatela.

In his career against Senzatela, Harper is hitting .333 with two homers and a double, posting a  1.244 OPS. Senzatela has also been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, especially when it comes to allowing baserunners.

The righty has a 1.99 WHIP this season, giving up 74 hits and nine homers in just nine outings (43.2 innings of work). He’s allowed all nine home runs over his last seven starts.

This is a great matchup for Harper to hit his eighth homer of the 2025 season. 

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Houston Astros slugger Isaac Paredes is one of the rare hitters that has insane reverse splits, hitting right-handed pitching (even though he’s a righty) at a significantly better clip than he does left-handed pitching.

Against righties this season, Paredes has hit six home runs and has a slash line of .285/.397/.457. However, that dips to just .105/.190/.263 against lefties.

Luckily for Paredes and the Astros, he’s facing an extremely home-run prone right-handed pitcher on Tuesday.

Tampa Bay Rays righty Zack Littell has given up 13 home runs in nine appearances this season, posting four different games with multiple home runs allowed. 

At +550, Paredes is worth a shot in this market for a Houston team that doesn’t have an obvious bet to hit a homer tonight, especially with Yordan Alvarez out of the lineup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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