Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Riley Greene and More)

Breaking down the best home run prop bet picks for the MLB action on Tuesday, July 1.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on July 1. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s officially July, and the Major League Baseball regular season is more than halfway done.

So, how fitting is it that we open the month with every single MLB team in action on Tuesday?

That gives us a ton of spots to look in the prop market, and I’m specifically looking at home run prop bets for tonight’s action.

One player that is synonymous with home runs is New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, and he’s facing a pitcher that he has dominated against in his MLB career in the second game of New York’s series with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Will he keep that up?

He’s one of three players that I’m targeting to leave the yard on July 1. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, July 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+295)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+190)
• Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+295)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene continues to mash in the 2025 season, hitting .417 with five home runs over the last two weeks and .360 with two homers over the last week. 

He’s now up to 19 home runs in the 2025 season while posting an impressive .296/.348/.539 slash line. The one-time All-Star has a real chance to hit his 20th homer of the season against a weak Washington Nationals pitching staff on Tuesday.

Washington will start Trevor Williams, who has a 5.65 ERA in the 2025 season, allowing nine home runs in his appearances. He’s backed by the worst bullpen in MLB, as the Nationals have posted a 5.84 bullpen ERA while allowing 40 homers in the 2025 season. 

Greene has dominated right-handed pitching this season, hitting .321 with 18 of his 19 home runs. He is in a great spot to build on that against Williams. 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+190)

In his career against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, Judge is hitting 14-for-41 (.341) with six homers, two doubles, and an impressive 1.310 OPS. 

Gausman has allowed 12 home runs in 16 outings in the 2025 season, posting a 4.21 ERA in the process.

While Judge has cooled off a bit after hitting nearly .400 for the first few months of the season, he’s still hit 20 homers against right-handed pitching and 30 overall. The Yankees superstar has a 1.175 OPS this season, and he’s hitting .358 against righties.

He’s a great bet to stay hot against Gausman on Tuesday. 

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes is one of the rare players who have reverse splits, meaning he hits right-handed pitchers better than left-handed pitchers despite being a right-handed batter.

This season, Paredes is hitting .267/.364/.478 against righties with 14 of his 17 home runs. He’s homered six times in the last 28 days, and I love the matchup for him on Tuesday at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies.

Not only does Coors Field have the highest Park Factor rating, per Statcast, but it has a 104 home run mark, which is top 10 in the league. Essentially, this means that compared to the league average (100), four percent more home runs are observed at Coors Field than elsewhere.

On Tuesday, Paredes gets to face youngster Chase Dollander, who has allowed 14 homers in 13 starts in 2025 while posting a 6.06 ERA. On top of that, the Rockies have one of the five-worst bullpen ERAs in MLB and have given up 45 home runs as a bullpen this season.

It’s hard to find a better matchup for any hitter on July 1.

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