Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target These 3 Vets for Value on Thursday)

Sean Treppedi | Jul 24, 2025

George Springer's contact numbers are red-hot this season and he's in an optimal spot to hit a dinger on Thursday. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Anything priced at +300 or longer is classified as a textbook longshot. The home run prop market is a popular way to bet baseball longshots, but on Thursday, I’m targeting three players who boast extra value. 

All three targets are veterans age 30 or older who have positively regressed at the plate this season and get optimal matchups on Thursday. 

Here’s my breakdown of each longball target for Thursday, July 24.

Best MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 24

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Nolan Arenado to Hit a Home Run (+680)
• Cedric Mullins to Hit a Home Run (+520)
• George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Nolan Arenado to Hit a Home Run (+680)

Arenado has owned Darvish in their head-to-head history (9‑for‑23) with three home runs. Darvish hasn’t allowed any homers over 13+ innings this season, but Arenado brings a solid power split vs. righties — he’s slugged eight homers off them this season. Darvish's flagging velo/command (6.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) sets him up promptly to clock another.

Cedric Mullins to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Mullins’ hard contact is up 3% from last season while his barrel rate has shot back up to 6.1%, his second-highest mark of his career. He’s swinging more aggressively, which explains why he’s striking out at the highest clip of his career, but it’s amounted to 13 home runs in 85 games. 

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Springer owns 17 home runs this season and leads the Blue Jays in slugging (.412 SLG at Comerica). Olson has been dominant with a 2.71 ERA but has allowed 23 walks in just 63 innings — indicative of occasional control issues that can lead to elevated pitch counts and mistakes. Springer has some of the best plate discipline in the game this year with a walk rate at 12.8% because he’s in the top percentile of avoiding chases. He’s pouncing on his pitches and reflects scorching metrics in all of his expected projections on Statcast, so he’s in a valued spot at +560 on Thursday.

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