Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Teoscar Hernandez, Alec Burelson Highlight Top Targets)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, June 20.
Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Teoscar Hernandez.
Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Teoscar Hernandez. / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

One of the most exciting bets to place in Major League Baseball is on a player to hit a home run, but it’s important to find the right matchups – and a hot hitter – to do so. 

With several games in action in MLB on Thursday afternoon, I’ve narrowed down my picks to two players, one lefty and one righty, to get the job done against some struggling starters. 

Can we cash in on these plus-money bets? I’m confident that these two players have a solid edge on June 20. 

Best MLB Home Run Picks for Thursday, June 20

  • Alec Burelson to Hit a Home Run (+700)
  • Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+235)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Alec Burelson to Hit a Home Run (+700)

St. Louis Cardinals youngster Alec Burelson has become a mainstay in the lineup this season, hitting 10 home runs and posting a .268/.298/.434 slash line in 228 at bats.

He’s not the flashiest player to take to go deep – hence the +700 odds – but he has a great matchup against Keaton Winn and the San Francisco Giants. 

Winn has allowed eight home runs in 11 starts this season, giving up at least one home run in each of his last four outings. To top it off, the Giants bullpen – which will follow Winn up – has been awful, putting up a 4.42 ERA and allowing 36 homers (third most in MLB) in 2024. 

Burelson has five homers this month, and he’s mashed right-handed pitching (.294/.327/.469 slash line with seven homers) so far this season. He’s worth a shot at these odds against a struggling pitching staff. 

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+235)

Teoscar Hernandez isn’t nearly as big of a long shot in this market, but I love him any time he’s facing a left-handed pitcher – like Colorado Rockies starter Ty Blach. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder has hit 18 home runs in 2024, including eight against left-handed pitching in just 79 at bats. That means Hernandez has hit a home run in 10.1 percent of his at bats against lefties in 2024. 

How could we not bet on him tonight?

Blach has struggled this season, posting a 1.41 WHIP and 4.65 ERA. He’s been especially bad as of late, allowing a home run in three straight games while giving up 25 hits in 15.2 innings of work. 

With this game being played at Coors Field, I expect there to be a few home runs on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.