Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 10

Sean Treppedi | Jul 10, 2025

Eugenio Suarez has generated plenty of offense with runners in scoring position lately, pointing us to his RBI prop. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks poured it on thick for their second win of the four-game set against the Padres yesterday. Geraldo Perdomo launched a grand slam, while three other Diamondbacks added homers to attain an 8-2 win.

Arizona is clinging to playoff hopes despite sitting in fourth place in the NL West, but they just need more consistency on both sides of the ball to stay in the mix. Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 5.78 ERA) has struggled to find his form, allowing eight earned runs in his last outing and failing to complete five innings in two straight starts. 

The Padres remain firmly in the Wild Card race and enter Thursday with momentum after winning two of the first three games in the series. Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.79 ERA) is quietly becoming more of a stabilizing presence in this Padres rotation — they have won each of his last three starts behind his steady command and ability to limit damage.

We’ll look a bit closer at both pitchers for more in-depth analysis on how to bet on the series finale Thursday.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Diamondbacks -1.5 (+136)
• Padres +1.5 (-164)

Moneyline

• Diamondbacks (-124)
• Padres (+106)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-122)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Diamondbacks: Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 5.78 ERA)
• Padres: Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.79 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 10, 2025
• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Padres TV Network, Dbacks.TV
• Diamondbacks Record: 46-47
• Padres Record: 49-23

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Eugenio Suarez to Record RBI (+125 at FanDuel)

Suarez has quietly been one of the most consistent run producers for Arizona, leading the team with 28 home runs and 74 RBIs on the campaign. But he’s also hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games, which is a profitable trend in such a random market. Vasquez’s 42 walks in 18 starts and inflated FIP (5.32) indicate a pitcher who constantly puts runners on base and struggles to finish innings cleanly. 

Even more importantly, Vasquez has been especially vulnerable to right-handed power bats when pitching with runners on, and Suarez’s power stroke (.563 SLG) from the middle of the lineup puts him in prime position to cash this. And most importantly — with Carroll and Marte ahead of him likely to get on base against a pitcher with serious command issues, Suarez should see RBI opportunities early. 

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

If you look at Rodriguez’s expected metrics, he has been playing better than his ERA suggests. While he is coming off a rough start, he had allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight prior to that, signaling a potential bounce-back against a Padres lineup that’s struggled to consistently punish southpaws. 

Arizona’s bats were quiet in Tuesday’s 1-0 loss, but the offense still ranks top five in run production, and they’ve proven capable of capitalizing against vulnerable arms. Vasquez, for as solid as his ERA looks, has some major red flags — his 5.78 xERA, astromonmically rising contact numbers and dreadful 1 percentile 12.5 strikeout rate point to major regression. 

Plus, Vasquez’s inability to miss bats and his extreme vulnerability to left-handed hitters make this a dangerous spot against the hottest hitters on the ball field in Carroll and Marte. Carroll in particular has crushed righties all season and already has five hits in ten career at-bats against Vasquez. 

Pick: Diamondbacks (-124 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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