Diamondbacks vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Wednesday, July 24 (Can KC Protect Home Field?)

The Kansas City Royals are one of the best home teams in MLB. Does that help them on Wednesday night?

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) dives into third base for a triple. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Kansas City Royals are two of the more exciting young teams in Major League Baseball, and they’re playing the rubber match of their three-game set on Wednesday night in Kansas City. 

Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire for the Royals, picking up 13 hits over five games since returning from the All-Star break, and he’s become the top candidate to beat out Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award. 

The Royals are in the final wild-card spot in the AL while the D-Backs are one game out of the National League's final spot, making this a big game for both sides. 

Oddsmakers have favored the Royals at home, but should we bet on them? Let’s break down the odds, probable pitchers, and the best bet for this interleague matchup. 

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-192)
• Royals -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline

• Diamondbacks: +102
• Royals: -122

Total

• 9 (Over -115/Under -105)

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

• Arizona: Ryne Nelson (7-6, 4.78 ERA)
• Kansas City: Michael Wacha (7-6, 3.55 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Royals How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 24
• Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports Southwest
• Diamondbacks record: 52-50
• Royals record: 56-46

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Key Players to Watch

Arizona Diamondbacks

Ryne Nelson: On the surface, Ryne Nelson’s stats don’t look great – especially his 4.78 ERA – but he’s been great over the last month. Nelson has a 2.22 ERA and 2.36 FIP this month in four starts, allowing just six runs while striking out 22 batters in 24.1 innings. He’s not going to be a pushover in this matchup. 

Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr.: Bobby Witt Jr. has jumped into the No. 1 spot in WAR this season, and the Royals shortstop is hitting .340 with 18 homers and 70 runs batted in.  

Major League Baseball has a new leader in Wins Above Replacement, and it's Bobby Witt Jr.

American League MVP voting this year is going to be diabolical. pic.twitter.com/667h4wk6GL

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 23, 2024

A must-watch player every night, Witt has at least one hit in 14 of his 15 games in the month of July. 

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

This will be one of the best games on Wednesday night, as Nelson has turned things around this month (2.22 ERA in four starts) and his season-long FIP shows that he may be pitching better than his ERA suggests. 

Nelson’s FIP is 3.89, nearly a run lower than his 4.78 ERA, and it’s continued to come down over the last month. 

He takes on Michael Wacha (3.55 ERA), who has allowed one or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Royals are 9-8 in Wacha’s outings, but I view this pitching matchup as pretty even on Wednesday.

So, what’s the difference?

Well, it may seem cliche, but it’s the Royals’ record at home.

Kansas City is 35-19 straight up at Kauffman Stadium, and it is 6-2 straight up in Wacha’s starts at home. 

As good as Nelson has been, the Arizona bullpen still has a 4.23 ERA on the season – slightly worse than Kansas City’s 4.12 ERA. That, combined with the Royals home dominance, is enough for me to lay the price with the favorite. 

Pick: Royals Moneyline (-122)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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