Dolphins Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Where Will Miami Finish in AFC?)

Sean Treppedi | Jul 15, 2025

Tua Tagovailoa's health will be a pivotal factor in the success of Miami's 2025 season. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Dolphins experienced a strange 2024 season where injuries, off-field drama and underwhelming performances felt like the sky was falling in Miami — despite still playing for a wild card spot in Week 18.

They now enter the 2025 season with something to prove after a disappointing 8-9 finish that left them out of the playoffs for the first time in three years.

Let’s take a closer look at the Dolphins’ outlook for 2025 with their win total projection.

Miami Dolphins 2025 Win Total Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Over 8.5: +165 
• Under 8.5: -195

Tagolvaiola’s Health is Critical to Miami’s Success in 2025

Much of the slide in 2024 was tied to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s head injury that sidelined him for several early-season games. In that stretch, Miami struggled to establish consistency. Tagovailoa quietly put up strong numbers in 2024 despite limited availability, including a career-best 72.9% completion rate and a third consecutive season with a 100+ passer rating. 

Tyreek Hill played in all 17 games but endured a noticeable statistical decline which led to frustrations boiling over when he voiced his displeasure after the season finale. 

Despite the regression, oddsmakers have set Miami’s win total at 8.5 and there’s risk on both sides of the line. With heavy on the under (-195) and a longer-than-usual price on the over (+165), the Dolphins are expected to compete in the AFC East, but not make the playoffs. 

With the annual two meetings against the rebuilding Jets and Patriots, Miami gets a favorable 2025 schedule, which is ranked seventh-easiest in the league. 

The team regressed in several areas: they finished with a negative turnover differential, struggled to convert on third and fourth downs and were unable to close out winnable games despite allowing the fourth-fewest total yards in the league. Those late-game lapses were a major offseason focal point, and if shored up, they could be all the difference.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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