Dream vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

The Dream are 8-3 against the spread so far in the 2025 season.

Atlanta Dream guard Allisha Gray is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Two of the best teams in the WNBA will face off in an extremely important Commissioner’s Cup matchup on Tuesday night in Brooklyn.

The New York Liberty (9-1 overall, 3-1 in Commissioner’s Cup play) dropped their first game of the season on Saturday against the Indiana Fever, meaning they need a win and a Fever loss on Tuesday to advance to the Commissioner’s Cup Final on July 1.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Dream could advance to the Final by picking up an upset win over the Liberty. Atlanta is 8-3 this season (3-1 in Commissioner’s Cup play), but it is set as a 7.5-point underdog on the road.

The Liberty are hoping to get Jonquel Jones (ankle) back in action, as she has not played since June 5.

Brondello: Jonquel Jones (ankle) will play on Tuesday; won't be on a minutes restriction.

— Underdog WNBA (@UnderdogWNBA) June 16, 2025

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday’s showdown between two of the East’s top teams. 

Dream vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Dream +7.5 (-108)
• Liberty -7.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Dream: +285
• Liberty: -360

Total

• 164 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dream vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 17
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Dream record: 8-3
• Liberty record: 9-1

Dream vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Dream Injury Report

• None to report

Liberty Injury Report

• Leonie Fiebich – out
• Jonquel Jones – expected to play

Dream vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Dream Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Allisha Gray OVER 16.5 Points (-120)

Dream wing Allisha Gray may be undervalued in this matchup, as she’s averaging 21.0 points per game this season, yet her prop line is set at just 16.5.

Gray has been super efficient for the Dream, shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from 3. In addition to that, she’s coming off a 32-point game in her last matchup – a 33-point win over Washington.

Gray has 17 or more points in seven of 11 games this season, and I’d expect her to carry a major offensive load on Tuesday. The Dream star is averaging career-highs in field goal attempts (13.1), 3-point attempts (6.1), and free-throw attempts (6.2) per game this season. 

Dream vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

The Dream enter this game on a three-game winning streak, and they’ve been elite when it comes to covering the number, going 8-3 against the spread.

Not only that, but Atlanta is fully healthy at this point in the season with Jordin Canada, Rhyne Howard, Gray, Brionna Jones, and Brittney Griner all set to go on Tuesday.

Now, the Liberty are an elite team once again this season, ranking No. 1 in the W in net rating, defensive rating, and offensive rating, but this is a pretty big number to cover -- even with Jones in action.

The Liberty struggled a bit on defense without the former league MVP, allowing 102 points in their loss to Indiana, and the Dream are one of the better offenses in the W so far in 2025.

While the Dream may not be as explosive as Caitlin Clark and the Fever, they do rank third in the W in offensive, defensive and net rating. 

With so much on the line in the Commissioner’s Cup standings, I’ll take the points with this Dream team that is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Pick: Dream +7.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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