Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Saturday, March 8

Reed Wallach | Mar 8, 2025

Feb 22, 2025; New York, NY, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) drives past Illinois Fighting Illini forward Will Riley (7) in the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Duke has continued its dominance over the ACC and will look to cap its season with a win against its arch rival on the road. 

North Carolina is firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a win against Duke would almost assuredly send them to the ‘Big Dance,’ but that’s easier said than done with the Blue Devils rated as the best team in the country. 

After a blowout win in the first meeting, can Duke complete the season sweep of UNC? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Duke vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Duke: -9.5 (-110)
• North Carolina: +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Duke: -450
• North Carolina: +340

Total: 156.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Duke vs. North Carolina How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 8th
• Game Time: 6:30 PM EST
• Venue: Dean Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Duke Record: 27-3
• North Carolina Record: 20-11

Duke vs. North Carolina Best Player Props Bets

Duke

Cooper Flagg OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100)

Flagg grabbed eight rebounds in the first meeting and I’m willing to back the over yet again at even money against an undersized North Carolina frontcourt. 

The Tar Heels rank below the national average in offensive rebounding rate, so I expect Duke to limit UNC to just one shot on most possessions, which should lead to plenty of boards for Flagg, who leads the team in defensive rebounding rate. 

Of course, Flagg is a factor on the offensive glass as well, but I’m more focused on the future No. 1 pick on the defensive glass to go over this total. 

North Carolina

RJ Davis OVER 16.5 Points (-115)

Davis hasn’t lived up to his lofty standards this season, but in his final game at the Dean Center, I expect him to go down swinging with a high volume shooting effort. 

In a blowout loss at Duke last month, Davis only scored 12 points on 11 field goal attempts, but that was below his season averages of 17 points and nearly 14 shots per game. 

While handicapping motivation is sometimes a fool’s errand, Davis is a high volume shooter that will be tasked with taking down the Tar Heels’ biggest rival and top team in the country. Even if the team comes up short, I expect Davis to be getting his shots up as the team is desperate for a win. 

Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

I think we are getting some value on Duke against the spread against a North Carolina team that is perceived to be desperate for a win. 

While North Carolina does in fact need a win to bolster its NCAA Tournament hopes, I don’t believe this team is equipped to stick with Duke. 

The Tar Heels have won seven of nine games since the start of February, but a lot of that has come on the back of elite three-point shooting. The team has hit nearly 44% of its three-point shots in that nine game sample as the team has faced two teams inside the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, losing to Duke by 17 and Clemson by 20. 

I believe UNC is quite inflated against Duke’s elite defense that is one of the best in the country, especially on the interior with the likes of Flagg and Khlama Maluach patrolling the middle, allowing the third lowest two-point percentage. With the Tar Heels over reliant on its three-point shooting, I expect Duke’s elite defense to shut the team down from all three facets. 

KenPom projects this spread at Duke -11, and with the market shifting towards the Tar Heels, I’m inclined to play back against it. 

PICK: Duke -9.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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