Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 1 (Pegula Favored to Advance)

Jessica Pegula is a massive favorite to advance to Round 2.

Jessica Pegula is favored to win her Round 1 match. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Round 1 of Wimbledon continues on Tuesday morning, as the No. 3 player in the world – Jessica Pegula – takes on Elisabetta Cocciaretto for the second time in their careers.

The last time they met? 

2023 at Wimbledon, where Pegula dominated the match, winning 6-4, 6-0 in the Round of 32.

So, it’s not a surprise that the American is a massive favorite in Tuesday’s Round 1 matchup. Still, Cocciaretto has some experience at Wimbledon, making the second round in 2022 in both singles and doubles and the third round (before losing to Pegula) in 2023.

Can she take down one of the world’s top players in what would potentially be the upset of the day?

Oddsmakers aren’t buying it, but it’s still worth a breakdown. Here’s a look at the odds, history for these players at Wimbledon and my prediction for Tuesday’s Round 1 meeting. 

Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Jessica Pegula Odds

Moneyline

• Elisabetta Cocciaretto: +700
• Jessica Pegula: -1100

Total Games

• 19.5 (Over +100/Under -135)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Jessica Pegula How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 1
• Time: 6:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN+

Elisabetta Cocciaretto: How They’ve Fared at Wimbledon

Cocciaretto’s best finish – as I mentioned earlier – at Wimbledon was in 2023 when Pegula knocked her out in the Round of 32. 

The Italian did make the second round of the French Open earlier this year, but she’s only advanced to the fourth round one time in her history at Grand Slam events. So, she’s facing a bit of an uphill battle against Pegula in Round 1. 

Jessica Pegula: How They’ve Fared at Wimbledon

Pegula made her only quarterfinal appearance at Wimbledon back in 2023, but she has not fared well at the event overall for a player of her caliber.

Here’s the round where she was eliminated in each of the last five times she’s played at Wimbledon: 

• 2019: Round 1
• 2021: Round 2
• 2022: Round 3
• 2023: Quarterfinal
• 2024: Round 2

Pegula is looking to turn that around as one of the higher seeds in the tournament this time around. 

Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Jessica Pegula: Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds at DraftKings (Pegula -1100), Pegula has an implied probability of 91.67 percent to advance to the second round for the fifth time in her career at Wimbledon.

I’d be shocked to see her come up short, especially since Cocciaretto has not had much success in any Grand Slam, failing to ever reach a quarterfinal. 

Pegula needed just 16 games to win the first meeting between these two players at Wimbledon, and she enters Tuesday’s matchup with the ninth-best odds to win the entire tournament on the women’s side. 

Outside of a fourth-round finish at the French Open in 2024 (on clay), Cocciaretto has never made it past the third round in a Grand Slam. I can’t back her to pull off the upset, and would rather take her to lose in straight sets with the UNDER 19.5 games. 

Pick: Pegula to Win (-1100), UNDER 19.5 Games (-135 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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