Elmer Moller vs. Tommy Paul Prediction, Odds for US Open First Round

Iain MacMillan | Aug 26, 2025

Tommy Paul is a significant favorite against Almer Moller in the opening round of the U.S. Open. / Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Tommy Paul has made it to at least the quarterfinals of every Grand Slam tournament, except for the U.S. Open, falling one match short in both 2023 and 2024.

He'll start his 2025 campaign in Queens with a first-round match against Elmer Moller on Tuesday night. Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for Tuesday's match.

Elmer Moller vs. Tommy Paul Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Elmer Moller +1200
• Tommy Paul -3000

Total Games

• 28.5 (Over -118/Under -112)

Elmer Moller vs. Tommy Paul How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, August 26
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Elmer Moller: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

Elmer Moller is getting his young career underway, and this will be the 22-year-old's first U.S. Open in his career. He's just 5-8 in his young career at the ATP Tour level, and he has his work cut out for him in this match, but at the very least, this will be a great experience for the Dane.

Tommy Paul: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

The U.S. Open has been the Grand Slam that Tommy Paul has struggled at the most. He has just a 53% win rate at the U.S. Open, dating back to 2015, compared to a 71% win rate at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon. This is also the only tournament that he hasn't been able to advance to the quarterfinals at least once.

Elmer Moller vs. Tommy Paul: Prediction and What the Odds Say

Tommy Paul is a significant favorite in this match, with odds of -3000 to win. If you translate those odds to implied probability, he has a 96.77% chance of advancing to the second round.

These two faced each other in the first round of this year's French Open as well. Moller won the first set in a tiebreak, but then Paul won the next three straight sets in dominant fashion.

I have little doubt that Paul will win the rematch on Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Young Moller can scrap out at least one set victory. You can bet on the Dane to win at least one set at plus-money, which is the wager to make in this one.

Best bet: Moller to Win At Least One Set (+140) via FanDuel

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