Fade the 49ers if Trent Williams Misses Games

Bettors should note 49ers performance without Williams.

Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers offensive lineman Trent Williams (71) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The most under-covered storyline this NFL offseason has been the holdout of 49ers All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. It's not as sexy to talk about Williams as fellow holdouts/hold-ins Ja'Marr Chase, Brandon Aiyuk, and formerly CeeDee Lamb before he got his deal done yesterday.

However, bettors should focus on Williams more as his absence is most notable for wagering on the 49ers. Their record without Williams over the last few seasons is abysmal and in the games Williams missed or didn't play 50% of the snaps last season, quarterback Brock Purdy was terrible.

Williams missed two games last season due to injury and the 49ers were 0-2 in those games. He was injured in the first quarter of the 49ers-Browns game and the 49ers lost that game too.

Since the start of the 2020 season, the 49ers are 3-6 in games Williams didn't start.

The 49ers host the Jets on Monday Night Football and are currently a 3.5-point favorite with -115 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Jets are -105 as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers are -196 on the moneyline vs. +164 for the Jets to win the game.

Based on the above statistics combined with the latest reports indicating there's been no progress in contract talks between Williams and the 49ers, there's reason to be concerned about betting on San Francisco here.

Aiyuk, a second-team All-Pro wide receiver selection for the 49ers last year, is also not practicing as he hopes to get a new contract too.

This is all bad news for Purdy, who was electric at points last season, but struggled when Williams was out of the lineup.

Brock Purdy (2023)

w/ Williams healthy: 28 TDs to 2 INTs
w/out: 3 TDs to 9 INTs https://t.co/ChUNN8irxW pic.twitter.com/Hyz6crPm6w

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 26, 2024

The 49ers are second in odds to win the Super Bowl this year at +600, just behind the Chiefs at +550 on FanDuel. They're -420 to make the playoffs, meaning oddsmakers give them an 80.8% implied probability of reaching the postseason.

Clearly, they're expected to be among the league's best again.

That doesn't mean you should bet them in Week 1. Even if Williams and Aiyuk both return, they've missed all of preseason and will likely need some time to adjust to full speed. This is a game to avoid betting on the 49ers, especially if Williams is out.

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