Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

The Thunder were an impressive 27-12-2 against the spread when favored at home this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target in Game 1. / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Sunday’s NBA playoff action kicks off with the Oklahoma City Thunder – the best team record-wise in the NBA – hosting the Memphis Grizzlies in a No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City cruised through the regular season, posting the best net rating in the NBA, and now it is heavily favored to advance past the Grizzlies in the first round. OKC is favored by 12.5 points at home in Game 1.

The Grizzlies dropped the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup with the Golden State Warriors in the play-in tournament earlier this week, but they bounced back to beat the Dallas Mavericks and secure the No. 8 seed on Friday night. 

Ja Morant (ankle) played through an injury in that game, but it’s going to be interesting to see how his body responds on short rest with an afternoon tip on Sunday.

OKC swept the season series between these teams in the regular season, and Memphis has just two wins over teams that are over .500 since early February. So, the Grizzlies are facing an uphill battle just to make this a series in the first round.

Here’s a breakdown of Game 1, including the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction. 

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Grizzlies +12.5 (-110)
• Thunder -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Grizzlies: +525
• Thunder: -750

Total

• 226.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Grizzlies vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, April 20
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Grizzlies record: 48-34
• Thunder record: 68-14

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Grizzlies Injury Report

• Brandon Clarke – out
• Jaylen Wells – out
• GG Jackson – out

Thunder Injury Report

• Ousmane Dieng – out
• Nikola Topic – out

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Memphis Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

• Desmond Bane OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-125)

In the play-in tournament, Bane knocked down three or more shots from deep in each game, extending a pretty strong stretch for him. 

Bane is shooting 42.1 percent from deep since the start of March, averaging nearly three 3-pointers made per game. He’s also knocked down at least three shots from beyond the arc in seven of his last eight games entering Game 1.

OKC is the No. 1 defense in the NBA, but if Morant is limited, Bane is going to be relied on as the primary guard option in this offense. For such a good shooter, this line is pretty reasonable on Sunday. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-120)

During the regular season, Memphis allowed over 24 points per game to opposing point guards, and it really struggled against SGA and the Thunder.

Gilgeous-Alexander put up 35, 32, 41 and 37 points in his four meetings with the Grizzlies, and he finished the regular season averaging 32.7 points per game overall. 

The NBA’s scoring champion, Gilgeous-Alexander should have a huge role against a Memphis team that is just 18th in defense since the All-Star break and loves to push the pace. If this game pushes near the total of 226.5, SGA is likely going to be around the 30-35-point mark for OKC. 

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

The Thunder have won nine straight games against Memphis, dating all the way back to the 2022-23 regular season.

This season, OKC picked up wins of 21, 17, 13 and 24 points against Memphis, who still hasn’t beaten a Western Conference team that is over .500 since late January. 

Sure, the Grizzlies played well enough to knock off Dallas, but now they have an unbelievably quick turnaround with a 1 p.m. EST tip on Sunday. 

Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the second-best record against the spread as a home favorite (27-12-2) while the Grizzlies were under .500 against the spread as road underdogs.

Memphis also really struggled down the stretch, posting the No. 17 net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break. Even though the Grizzlies love to push the pace and can score with just about anyone, their defense slipped to No. 18 in the league after the break.

Against a healthy OKC with a massive rest advantage, I think the Grizzlies could be in trouble in Game 1. 

Pick: Thunder -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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