Guardians vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cleveland Guardians-Chicago Cubs matchup on July 3.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton is a player to fade in the prop market. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs are up to 51 wins in the 2025 season, and they’re looking to complete a sweep of the Cleveland Guardians ahead of the holiday weekend.

Chicago is favored at home in this series finale, as Cade Horton (4.80) gets the ball against Joey Cantillo (3.81 ERA).

A former first-round pick, Horton had a rough month in June, posting a 5.47 ERA in five starts. Can he turn things around against a Cleveland team that is battling for wild-card positioning in the American League?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction on Thursday night. 

Guardians vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-168)
• Cubs -1.5 (+138)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +118
• Cubs: -144

Total

• 8.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Guardians vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Joey Cantillo (1-0, 3.81 ERA)
• Chicago: Cade Horton (3-2, 4.80 ERA)

Guardians vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 3
• Time: 8:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Guardians record: 40-44
• Cubs record: 51-35

Guardians vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cade Horton OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135)

Even though the Guardians aren’t an elite offense – they rank 27th in runs scored and 29th in batting average – I think this line is too low for the former first-round pick.

Horton has given up five or more hits in six of his nine starts this season, allowing over a hit per inning (51 in 45.0 innings of work). 

He’s coming off a rough month of June, where he gave up at least seven hits in three of his five outings, including 15 combined over his last two starts. I’ll take a shot on Cleveland’s offense to pick up five or more hits against the youngster on Thursday. 

Guardians vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

The Guardians are using Cantillo as an opener in this matchup, and he’s pitched well in 2025, posting a 3.81 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. 

However, the Guardians' bullpen has been rather suspect, posting a 3.97 ERA as a team. Could that cause some issues against a Chicago offense that is second in MLB in runs scored in 2025?

I think it could, and this total (8.5) is a little too low given Horton’s recent struggles. These teams have combined for seven and nine runs in their two games in this series, but Horton has allowed three or more runs in seven of his nine starts in 2025.

Chicago is also one of the best OVER teams in MLB (44-35-7), so I wouldn’t be shocked to see these teams push double-digits in total runs on Thursday.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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