Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 22

Sean Treppedi | May 22, 2025

Tanner Bibee has struggled to achieve high rates of strikeouts, which makes him a prop target against the beaming Tigers. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Baseball’s headlining Detroit Tigers crack open a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, May 22, marking their first meeting of the 2025 season. 

The Guardians just broke a five-game losing streak and have slipped in the AL Central standings. Detroit returns home after capping off their road trip with a series victory over the Cardinals to maintain the game’s top record with 33 wins to date.

Thursday's pitching matchup features Cleveland's Tanner Bibee (3–4, 4.06 ERA) against Detroit's Jack Flaherty (2–5, 4.44 ERA). Bibee carries a 1.26 WHIP with 29 strikeouts over his last seven games, while Flaherty has held hitters to a .221/.281/.388 slash line in 12 career starts at Comerica Park.

Let’s dig into how we can approach the lines for this matchup.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-200)
• Tigers -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline

• Guardians (+120)
• Tigers (-142)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-106)
• Under 8.5 (-114)

Guardians vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Guardians: Tanner Bibee (3-4, 4.06 ERA)
• Tigers: Jack Flaherty (2-5, 4.44 ERA)

Guardians vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 22, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSN Detroit, Guardians TV
• Guardians Record: 26-22
• Tigers Record: 33-17

Guardians vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142 at FanDuel)

The Tigers are a middle-of-the road strikeout lineup, but their offense surgence has powered them enough in the standings this season to manage an inconsistent Tanner Bibee.

Bibee is reeling from having coughed up 10 hits and four earned runs in six innings of work against the Reds. He’s hit five strikeouts in three of his nine starts and is running with a 6.18 strikeout per nine rate — the lowest of his three-year Major League career. 

He’s drawing whiffs at a measly 20.1% clip and chases at 20.2%, per Statcast. 

Then there’s Bibee’s road splits, which tell an even more inviting story in fading his strikeout prop on Thursday: He’s getting hit for a .420 wOBA outside of Cleveland, which measures opposing hitters’ overall offensive production by weighting events. 

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Speaking of Bibee’s road splits, the right-hander owns an ERA of 6.49. At Comerica Park, the Tigers are mashing the ball with a .263/.343/.419 slash line. 

It may be a chalky move, but I can’t find the confidence in a Cleveland product that’s been good for 13 weighted runs created plus below the league average and a once-elite pitching staff that’s plummeted to No. 20 overall with a 4.12 ERA.

Detroit is firing on all cylinders with top-10 metrics across both major batting and pitching statistics. It is perched at No. 5 overall in weighted runs created plus with 15 above the norm according to FanGraphs.

Flaherty just got back on the horse with a win after taking five straight losses, but his 10.8 strikeout per nine rate paves the way to conquer a Cleveland club that likes to bite frequently in the zone, sporting a 67.3% zone swing rate per Statcast. 

Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+164 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

If you’re located in AZ, CO, KS, NC, or TN, you can bet $5 and get a $200 bonus regardless of the outcome of your initial wager.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.