Guardians vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 19

Sean Treppedi | May 19, 2025

Logan Allen's low strikeout rate and tendency to get relieved early in games makes him a fade in his strikeout prop on Monday. / Brad Mills-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians open a three-game series on Monday, May 19, at Target Field, with both teams closely contending in the AL Central standings. The Twins enter Monday off a road-series victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, while the Guardians aim to rebound after being swept by the Cincinnati Reds.

Minnesota will send right-hander Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.72 ERA) to the mound. Ober has been a reliable presence in the Twins' rotation, contributing to a pitching staff that ranks among the league's best. The Twins' pitching depth has been a key factor in their recent success, including a 13-game winning streak that was snapped on Sunday. 

Cleveland counters with left-hander Logan Allen (2-2, 3.70 ERA), who looks to steady a Guardians team that has lacked sufficient run support. The Guardians' lineup has faced challenges, particularly with runners in scoring position, exemplified by a 2-for-16 performance in their recent loss to the Reds. 

Let’s break down how we can place action on this Monday night matchup with a player prop and game prediction.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-192)
• Twins -1.5  (+158)

Moneyline

• Guardians (+120)
• Twins (-142)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-110)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

Guardians vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• Guardians: Logan Allen (2-2, 3.70 ERA)
• Twins: Bailey Ober (4-1, 4.72 ERA)

Guardians vs. Twins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 19
• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Target Field
• How to Watch (TV): Guardians TV, Twins TV
• Guardians Record: 25-21
• Twins Record: 26-21

Guardians vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Logan Allen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-112 at FanDuel)

For the 7.5 line on the total for this game, both pitchers are set with particularly low strikeout prop lines. 

But in Allen’s case, that’s because he has been more of an “opener” than a starter as he’s pitched into the fifth inning once in 12 starts. He’s hit four strikeouts twice.

In his 28 total innings, he’s struck out only 21 hitters, which has translated to a 6.75 strikeout per nine inning rate.

Allen’s last start was abysmal; he gave up six earned runs in the one inning he manufactured against the Padres in the Guardians’ 13-1 loss. 

Minnesota is nothing but average at the plate, but it’s one of MLB’s most swing-savvy teams. With his limited inning output, I’m not counting on Allen’s extremely low percentage of whiffs to fool them enough on Monday. 

Guardians vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Even if I’m not confident in Allen’s strikeout abilities here, there might be some room for positive regression in this matchup. Allen holds the Twins to strong numbers in expected metrics, including a .230 batting average per Statcast. 

In Ober’s case, the Guardians have never cracked him. In nine career starts against Cleveland, Ober has muzzled it to a .191 average while posting a 2.05 ERA.

The Twins have yet to showcase any offensive consistency, so their underwhelming production doesn’t make a strong enough case back them as favorites. What they do have is a lights-out bullpen that ranks No. 4 overall. 

Target Field is projected to have high winds on Monday blowing in from the outfield, which has fair potential to suppress fly balls and home run distance.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-110 at FanDuel)

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