Hawks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Feb. 26

The Atlanta Hawks are slight underdogs on the road against the Miami Heat.

Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels is a great prop target on Wednesday night. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat played a low-scoring matchup in Atlanta on Monday night, as the Hawks held Tyler Herro and company to less than 90 points in a win.

Now, the Hawks and Heat take on Miami for Wednesday night’s matchup with play-in tournament positioning on the line.

Entering this game, the Hawks hold the tiebreaker over the Heat for the No. 8 seed, and they are 2-0 against them this season. These teams will play two more times, but a win by Atlanta on Wednesday would clinch the tiebreaker for the season.

Miami’s offense has not been the same without Jimmy Butler in a Heat uniform, and the Heat have dropped seven of their last 10 to fall to four games under .500 on the season.

Can the Heat get back on track as a slight favorite at home?

Let’s break down the odds, player props to consider and my prediction for this divisional battle on Wednesday night. 

Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Hawks +2.5 (-110)
• Heat -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Hawks: +114
• Heat: -135

Total

• 230 (Over -108/Under -112)

Hawks vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Feb. 26
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Southeast
• Hawks record: 27-31
• Heat record: 26-30

Hawks vs. Heat Injury Reports

Hawks Injury Report

• Kobe Bufkin – out
• Jalen Johnson – out
• Vit Krejci – out
• Larry Nance Jr. – out
• Daeqwon Plowden – out
• Trae Young – probable

Heat Injury Report

• Bam Adebayo – questionable
• Josh Christopher – out
• Tyler Herro – available
• Keshad Johnson – out
• Nikola Jovic – out
• Dru Smith – out
• Isaiah Stevens – out
• Kel’el Ware – probable
• Andrew Wiggins – probable

Hawks vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets 

Atlanta Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Dyson Daniels OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-145)

This season, Dyson Daniels is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game, but he’s taken a step forward in this market as of late.

Daniels has six or more boards in 12 of his last 15 games, and he’s averaging 7.4 rebounds per game over that stretch. This is a great matchup for Daniels, as the Heat are just 25th in the league in opponent rebounds per game. 

On Monday, Daniels picked up a massive 11 boards against this Heat team. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Davion Mitchell UNDER 4.5 Assists (-115)

I’m surprised by this prop line for Heat guard Davion Mitchell, as he’s cleared it just one time in six games with Miami, picking up just two assists in Monday’s game against the Hawks.

Simply put, the Heat offense has not been good enough to trust secondary players in an assist market, and Mitchell is averaging just 8.0 potential assists per game as a member of the Heat. 

Hawks vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

On Monday, these teams played a low-scoring game with the Heat mustering just 86 points in a matchup that combined for 184 total points.

While I don’t expect that to happen again on Wednesday, even the first meeting between these teams had only 230 points – a low combined score for a Hawks game this season.

Miami is one of the three-slowest paced teams in the league this season, and it may look to slow this game down even more if Adebayo (questionable) is unable to play. On top of that, they're in the bottom five in the league in offensive rating over their last 10 games, failing to clear this total in six of their last 10 games. 

The Hawks love to push the pace and have scored the ball at a high rate this season, but 229.5 points may be too many with Miami potentially down multiple rotation players tonight. 

Pick: UNDER 230 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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