Iga Swiatek vs. Clara Tauson Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 4 (Swiatek Favored)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Iga Swiatek-Clara Tauson match in Round 4 at Wimbledon.

Iga Swiatek is favored to advance to the quarterfinals. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

A quarterfinal spot is on the line at Wimbledon on Monday, as No. 8 Iga Swiatek takes on No. 23 Clara Tauson in a Round 4 (or Round of 16) matchup at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

Swiatek has one quarterfinal appearance at Wimbledon in her career, and she’s heavily favored in the latest odds for this match.

Tauson is having by far her best showing ever at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, as this is the first time that she’s advanced past the first round in her career.

Can she keep it going in Round 4?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to this point and my prediction for Monday’s match. 

Iga Swiatek vs. Clara Tauson Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Iga Swiatek: -380
• Clara Tauson: +290

Total

• 21.5 (Over -115/Under -120)

Iga Swiatek vs. Clara Tauson How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 7
• Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Iga Swiatek: How Did They Get Here

Swiatek is coming off a dominant showing in the third round against Danielle Collins, as she won 6-2, 6-3 to advance to the fourth round. 

Swiatek won her first-round matchup in straight sets as well, but she had to battle in Round 2 after dropping the opening set against Caty McNally.

In her career at Wimbledon, Swiatek has made at least the third round in four straight years, but she’s eyeing just the second quarterfinal appearance of her career on Monday. 

Clara Tauson: How Did They Get Here

Tauson has to be happy with how she’s played at Wimbledon since she entered the 2025 tournament without a single win at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. 

In the third round, Tauson upset No. 11 Elena Rybakina in straight sets, and she has dropped just one set in the entire tournament. However, Tauson has also played in a pair of tiebreaks to win her last two matches. 

Iga Swiatek vs. Clara Tauson Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds, Swiatek has an implied probability of 79.17 percent to advance to the quarterfinal. She’s the rightful favorite in this match considering the lack of success at Wimbledon for Tauson in her career.

These two players matched up in 2022 at Indian Wells, and Swiatek won that match in three sets. The No. 3 player in the world at the time, Swiatek actually dropped the opening set before rebounding to win the match.

I think that Monday’s match could be a long one as well, especially when looking at Tauson’s matches at Wimbledon this year.

The No. 23 player in the world has needed 27, 22, and 22 games (and two tiebreaks) in order to advance to Round 4. 

Meanwhile, Swiatek has played 19, 27, and 17 games in her three matches. I wouldn't be shocked to see this match go to three sets, and if it does the OVER should hit with relative ease.

While I lean with Swiatek to win, I don’t love the -380 price. The total has a little more value if Tauson can keep up her solid play. 

Pick: OVER 21.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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