Illinois vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Sunday, January 19th

Reed Wallach | Jan 18, 2025

Jan 14, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) and Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) celebrate after a play during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Two contenders for the Big Ten crown meet in East Lansing, Michigan on Sunday afternoon when Illinois travels to face Michigan State. 

The Fighting Illini have been up-and-down at points this season, but the ceiling of this team is Final Four caliber. The team will be on the road to face a surging Michigan State team that has been on a tear, winning 10 straight games and are undefeated in league play. 

In a projected close game, who holds the edge? Let’s get you set for this high level league showdown. 

Illinois vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Illinois: +2.5 (-115)
• Michigan State: -2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Illinois: +118
• Michigan State: -134

Total: 154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 19th.
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Jack Breslin Students Events Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Illinois Record: 13-4
• Michigan State Record: 15-2

Illinois vs. Michigan State Key Players to Watch 

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The freshman sensation returned from a forearm injury to score 21 points with five assists in the blowout win against Illinois, building on his stellar season in Champaign. The Lithuanian is averaging nearly 17 points per game with five rebounds and five assists while shooting 50% from the field. 

Michigan State

Jaden Akins: The senior guard continues to contribute game in and game out for the Spartans. Averaging 14 points per game, Akins has adapted his game to diminished three-point shooting (29%) to a high level of interior scoring while shooting 45%. He has leaned into what’s working and he has been a key cog in the Spartans surge to the top of the conference. 

Illinois vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Michigan State’s offense is funnelled through its ability to get inside and finish around the rim. However, Illinois has the length to coax defenses into contested shots from the mid-range and inside. 

According to Haslametrics, Michigan State is second in the country in near-proximity field goal percentage. However, Illinois, who bolsters size all over, ranks 39th in defending the rim and 26th in mid-range field goal percentage. 

The defense doesn’t force turnovers, but the team’s ability to run teams inside and challenge shots makes it one of the toughest to score on in the country. 

Meanwhile, I think this matchup sets up better for Illinois, who forces the issue from the perimeter with the second highest three-point rate in Big Ten play while the Spartans are 15th in opponents’ three-point rate. The Fighting Illini have been a pedestrian three-point shooting team, but its shot diet opens up the team’s interior attack that features plenty of cutting actions around the guard Jakucionis’ shot creation as a scorer and passer. 

Michigan State has won 10 straight, but haven’t beaten a KenPom top 30 team in that streak. I think the team struggles to pull away from the Fighting Illini on Sunday. 

PICK: Illinois +2.5

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.