Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 11

Reed Wallach | Jan 11, 2025

Jan 4, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Grant McCasland makes a call during the second half against the Utah Utes at the Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images / Christopher Creveling-Imagn Images

Texas Tech continues to look the part in Big 12 play and will try to spring a signature win at home against Iowa State, who is in the mix for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Iowa State’s elite defense has been paired with a surging offense behind a veteran backcourt and bruising frontcourt. Can the team travel well and keep up with Texas Tech, who has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Cyclones defense? 

Here’s our preview for this Big 12 showdown on Saturday afternoon. 

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Iowa State: +1.5 (-122)
• Texas Tech: -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Iowa State: -110
• Texas Tech: -110

Total: 145.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 11
• Game Time: 2:00 PM EST
• Venue: United Supermarkets Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Iowa State Record: 13-1
• Texas Tech Record: 11-3

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Key Players to Watch

Iowa State 

Keshon Gilbert: The senior guard has been a downhill threat that has given the opposing defense fits while also providing plenty of on-ball defensive firepower. The senior guard is averaging a career high 16 points while shooting 52% from the field and getting to the free throw line six times per game. 

Texas Tech

Elijah Hawkins: The Minnesota transfer is off his best game in a Red Raiders uniform, scoring 22 points and dishing out five assists against BYU on Tuesday. The guard has been providing the Texas Tech offense with a true floor general that has led to a top 10 offensive output, per KenPom. 

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

Iowa State’s offense is incredibly reliant on scoring in transition and scoring points off of turnovers. TJ Otzelberger’s defense’s elite ‘no-middle’ principles unpacks the opposition and generates easy buckets in bunches. 

However, Texas Tech is an elite ball handling team with Hawkins leading the way, top 50 in turnover rate, and denying transition opportunities at a nice clip as opponents are posting a sub-13% transition rate this season. 

Texas Tech is comfortable in the half court and slowing this game down while also catching overplaying defenses sleeping, something Iowa State has struggled with this season. The Cyclones are allowing 1.40 points per possession off of cuts this season, a bottom 50 rate in the country. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is scoring 1.48 points per possession on cuts, a top 100 rate. 

This matchup sets up nicely for Texas Tech at home to keep this within a possession. The Red Raiders motion-based offense is scoring far more effectively than Iowa State (third in effective field goal percentage vs. 26th) and can slow down the fast-paced Cyclones offense at home. 

I’ll lay the points on Saturday in Lubbock. 

PICK: Texas Tech -1.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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