Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Big Ten Tournament First Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Iowa-Ohio State matchup in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton is a player to watch in the prop market on Wednesday. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

The Ohio State Buckeyes are firmly on the bubble for the 2025 NCAA Tournament entering their Big Ten Tournament matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes on Wednesday evening.

The Buckeyes likely will need to make some noise in the Big Ten Tourney to push themselves into the conversation for the Field of 68, and luckily for them, they’re pretty heavily favored on Wednesday.

Iowa struggled in Big Ten play, losing seven of 20 games, including its lone matchup with the Buckeyes back on Jan. 27.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including the latest odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten Tournament clash. 

Iowa vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Iowa +5.5 (-118)
• Ohio State -5.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Iowa: +180
• Ohio State: -218

Total

• 155.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Iowa vs. Ohio State How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 12
• Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Iowa record: 16-15 (7-13 Big Ten)
• Ohio State record: 17-14 (9-11 Big Ten)

Iowa vs. Ohio State Key Players to Watch

Iowa

Payton Sandfort: The Hawkeyes guard enters this matchup averaging 16.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. He hasn’t shot the ball great (40 percent from the field, 32.6 percent from 3), but Iowa relies on him to really carry this offense. In his lone meeting with the Buckeyes, Sandfort finished with 13 points. 

Ohio State 

Bruce Thornton: A former top-50 recruit, Thornton leads the Buckeyes this season in points per game (17.5) and assists per game (4.5). He’s also shooting an impressive 42.6 percent from 3-point range. Against Iowa in January, the veteran guard had 15 points, seven rebounds and three assists. 

Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

These teams are very similar in KenPom’s rankings on the offensive end – Iowa is 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and Ohio State is 31st – but the big difference comes on the defensive end of the floor.

The Hawkeyes are outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 79.2 points per game – good for 341st in the country.

The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are a top 50 team in adjusted defensive efficiency and are holding opponents to just 42.5 percent shooting from the field. The matchup between these teams earlier this year was played at Ohio State, so there was a Buckeye advantage, but Iowa was blown out by 17 and allowed 52 second-half points. 

Both of these teams can really score the ball, but at the end of the day I don’t trust Iowa to get enough stops to pull off the upset. The Buckeyes, who have a ton of former top-100 recruits on their roster, should be able to cover and improve their case on the bubble ahead of the NCAA Tournament.  

Pick: Ohio State -5.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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