Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz-Jan-Lennard Struff match in Round 3 in Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz is a massive favorite in Round 3 of Wimbledon. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Two-time defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz is through to the third round, and he’s a massive favorite against Jan-Lennard Struff to advance.

Struff and Alcaraz have faced off at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club before, as Alcaraz defeated Struff in 2022 in the Round of 128 in a match that went to five sets.

In his career, Alcaraz is 3-1 against Struff, winning their last three meetings after a 2021 loss to him at Roland Garros in the French Open. 

Oddsmakers are expecting Alcaraz to continue his title defense, but should bettors trust him to do it in dominant fashion? 

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the third round and my prediction for Friday’s match. 

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Jan-Lennard Struff: +2000
• Carlos Alcaraz: -5000

Total 

• 30.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 4
• Time: 10:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jan-Lennard Struff: How Did They Get Here

Struff has never made it past the third round at Wimbledon, but this is his fourth appearance in the third round and his second straight (he did so in 2024 as well).

As I mentioned, Struff lost to Alcaraz back in 2022 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, but he’s looking for revenge after winning each of his first two matches in 2025 in four sets.

In the second round, Struff took down No. 25 Felix Auger Aliassime (3-6, 7-6, 6-3, 6-4).

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here

After going the distance in Round 1, Alcaraz rebounded in Round 2, making quick work of Oliver Tarvet (6-1, 6-4, 6-4). He won nine more games than Tarvet, and his games spread against Struff is set at 7.5 on Friday.

Alcaraz has a ton of great history at Wimbledon, winning back-to-back titles and reaching the fourth round in three straight years. He’ll aim to make that four straight in 2025. 

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz What the Odds Say and Prediction

Based on the odds (Alcaraz -5000), the defending champion is expected to advance, as he has an implied probability of 98.04 percent to do so. 

Alcaraz needed five sets to beat Struff back in 2022, but he’s become a much better player since then, winning back-to-back titles at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

I think he’s worth a look to cover the games spread in this match, as Struff isn’t nearly on the same trajectory as Alcaraz since he beat him back in 2021 in the French Open. Since then, Alcaraz has won five Grand Slam titles while Struff has never made it past the third round in a Grand Slam again.

He’s never done so at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, and I don’t see him picking off enough games to make up this margin. Even if this goes to four sets, I think it gives Alcaraz a little more margin for error to clear this line.

So far at Wimbledon, Alcaraz has gone plus-four and plus-nine in games won in his two matches. 

Pick: Alcaraz -7.5 Games (-130 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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