Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds for French Open Quarterfinals

No. 1 Jannik Sinner is a massive favorite to advance to the semifinals.

Jannik Sinner of Italy is a huge favorite in the French Open quarterfinals. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

The first of two men’s quarterfinal matches at the French Open on Wednesday features the world’s No. 1 player – Jannik Sinner – taking on unranked Alexander Bublik with a trip to the semifinals on the line.

Since Sinner is the No. 1 player in the world, it’s not surprising that he’s an overwhelming favorite in the betting odds heading into this matchup.

Bublik has made a nice run at Roland Garros, getting through the first two rounds for the first time in his career. However, he’s not getting much of a chance – at least in the eyes of Vegas – to reach the semifinals. 

Sinner fell in the semifinals at Roland Garros last year, and he’ll look to at least get back to that point on Wednesday.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, the path these players have taken to this spot, and my prediction for this quarterfinal matchup. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -5000
• Alexander Bublik: +2200

Total

• 28.5 (Over -120/Under -115)

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 4
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner’s path to the quarterfinals has been nothing short of dominant. 

The No. 1 player in the world has not dropped a single set through the first four rounds at the French Open, knocking off No. 17 Andrey Rublev in the fourth round to make the quarters.

He dropped just eight games in that round, and he’s dropped less than 10 games in each of the last three rounds after working a little harder than you’d expect against Arthur Rinderknech in the first round.

Sinner has two quarterfinal appearances in his career at Roland Garros, but before last year’s semifinal finish, he had not made it out of the fourth round in three consecutive tries. 

He and Bublik have never faced off on clay, but the underdog did win their last meeting (back in 2023) on grass. Sinner is 3-1 all-time against Bublik heading into Wednesday's quarterfinal. 

Alexander Bublik: How Did They Get Here?

Bublik has pulled off some improbable upsets to reach the quarterfinals for the first time in his career at Roland Garros.

Prior to this year’s tournament, he’s never made it past the second round, and this is his first quarterfinal appearance in a Grand Slam in his career. 

So, how did Bublik make this improbable run?

Well, he won in straight sets in the first round but dropped his first two sets in the second round to world No. 9 Alex de Minaur. From there, Bublik rallied to win 18 of the next 27 games, taking three sets in a row to advance.

He then dominated Henrique Rocha in straight sets in the third round before taking on No. 5 Jack Draper in the fourth round. Bublik dropped the first set, but then once again won 18 of the next 27 games to win in four sets.  

In his career, Bublik has struggled against Sinner (1-3), although he did get the best of him in 2023 in the quarterfinals of the Halle Open. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik: What the Odds Say and Prediction

Based on the odds for this matchup, Sinner has an implied probability of 98.04 percent to win and advance to the semifinals. So, I’d be foolish to say that bettors should take the underdog here, but there is absolutely zero value in a -5000 favorite.

That being said, if you believe Sinner will dominate like the odds suggest, taking the UNDER in the number of games played between these two could be worth a look. 

Sinner has won every round in the French Open in straight sets, and it appears that he’s poised to do that again – based on the odds.

He’s played 31, 25, 21 and 26 games through the first four rounds.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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