Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for French Open Final (Sinner Set as Slight Favorite)

Iain MacMillan | Jun 7, 2025

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will face off in the French Open final. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are set to face off in the final of the French Open, and this is a matchup that we're destined to see numerous times over the next decade. The 22 and 23-year-olds have combined to win the past five major trophies and will enter today's match as the top two-ranked players in the world.

Despite their recent dominance, this will be the first time these two will meet in a major final, and I'd be shocked if Sunday's match isn't the first of several times it happens over the years.

Let's take a look at the odds and my prediction.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner -120
• Carlos Alcaraz -105

Total

• 39.5 games (Over -110/Under -120)

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, June 8
• Time: 9:00 am ET
• How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Jannik Sinner enters the French Open final as the No. 1-ranked men's tennis player in the world, having won back-to-back Grand Slams, last year's U.S. Open and this year's Australian Open. He will now try to get his revenge against Carlos Alcaraz from last year's French Open semifinals, when he lost to him in five sets.

Sinner has torn his way through this year's tournament and has yet to lose a single set, including beating the No. 6 seed, Novak Djokovic, in straight sets in the semi-final. He'll try to carry that momentum into Sunday's final against Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner may have won the last two Grand Slams, but Alcaraz enters as the defending French Open champion. He defeated Sinner in last year's semifinal and then went on to beat Alexander Zverev in the final.

Alcaraz has had a relatively easy tournament so far, but he hasn't had a clean sheet like Sinner has, losing one set in four of his six matches. He defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinal after the Italian retired in the fourth set, struggling with an injury.

Alcaraz is 4-0 all time in Grand Slam finals.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz: What the Odds Say and Prediction

The oddsmakers have the match set as a near coin flip, with Sinner set as a very slight favorite at -120. If you translate the odds to implied probability, he has a 54.55% chance of winning his third straight Grand Slam.

It's hard to bet against Sinner, who has been playing the best tennis of his career. Not only has he won two-straight majors, but he hasn't dropped a single set this entire tournament, something Alcaraz can't say.

Alcaraz has the advantage in head-to-head history, winning 7 of the 11 matches between these two, but Sinner is undoubtedly in the better form heading into this year's final, and that's enough for me to back him at -120.

Pick: Jannik Sinner -120 via DraftKings

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.