Jannik Sinner vs. Luca Nardi Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 1 (Sinner Massively Favored)

Jannik Sinner is a -5000 favorite to advance to Round 2.

Jannik Sinner is a massive favorite in Round 1. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Jannik Sinner – the No. 1 overall player in the world – is set to begin his journey at Wimbledon on Tuesday morning against Luca Nardi. 

This will be the first meeting between the two players, as Nardi (No. 95 in the world) is playing in just his second Wimbledon. The 21-year-old has yet to make it out of the first round at a Grand Slam event.

When it comes to a Grand Slam, it seems like the only person that can take down Sinner is Carlos Alcaraz, and that’s reflected in the odds for each player to win it all in this tournament. 

Sinner is also massively favored to advance to Round 2, even though Nardi is a top-100 player in the world.

Here’s a look at the odds, history for each of these players at Wimbledon and my prediction for Tuesday’s match. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Luca Nardi Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -5000
• Luca Nardi: +2000

Total Games

• 27.5 (Over -130/Under -105)

Jannik Sinner vs. Luca Nardi How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 1
• Time: 8:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Jannik Sinner: How They’ve Fared at Wimbledon

Sinner has made the quarterfinals in each of the last three times he’s appeared at Wimbledon, including a semifinal appearance in 2023. After a runner-up finish at the French Open where he blew a huge lead, Sinner is likely going to come out focused in this tournament. 

Luca Nardi: How They’ve Fared at Wimbledon

Nardi participated in Wimbledon in 2024, losing in the first round. He’s never made it out of the first round in five tries at a Grand Slam, including this year’s Australian Open and French Open.

Jannik Sinner vs. Luca Nardi: Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the odds, Sinner is essentially a lock to advance to the second round.

He is set at -5000, which is an implied probability of 98.04 percent that he advances. It makes sense, since Nardi has never won a match in a Grand Slam in his career. 

However, Sinner is coming off a loss to Alexander Bublik at the Terra Wortmann Open in the Round of 16, and it took 29 games (in a best of three sets match) for him to go down. I think the OVER is the play here, as even winning in straight sets would give Sinner very little room for error.

He’d have to play at least 18 games to win in straight sets, and betting the UNDER on this total suggests that Nardi is able to get less than 10 games in three sets. If this match somehow reaches a fourth or fifth set, the OVER will cash easily. 

It’s hard to bet on some of these Round 1 matchups with players like Sinner favored by so much, but Nardi has a lot of Grand Slam experience – even though he’s never made it out of the first round.

I think he wins enough games to push this total OVER on Tuesday.

Pick: Sinner to win (-5000), OVER 27.5 Games (-130 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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