Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds for French Open Semifinals

Jannik Sinner is favored to advance to the French Open Final for the first time in his career.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) and Jannik Sinner (ITA) face off in the semis at Roland Garros. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

A spot in the French Open Final is on the line on Friday, as world No. 1 Jannik Sinner takes on No. 6 Novak Djokovic – a three-time champion at Roland Garros – at 1 p.m. EST.

Sinner has rolled through this tournament to make his second straight semifinal appearance while Djokovic dropped the first set of his quarterfinal match against Alexander Zverev before rallying to take the last three sets.

This is the 13th semifinal appearance for Djokovic at the French Open, and he’s reached the Final in seven of his previous 12 appearances.

Sinner is heavily favored to win this matchup in the latest betting odds, but can he take down Djokovic on clay?

Here’s a look at the odds, the paths each of these players took to get here and my prediction for Friday’s semifinal. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -450
• Novak Djokovic: +330

Total

• 36.5 (Over -115/Under -120)

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 6
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): truTV//TNT

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

It’s been a dominant run for Sinner so far in the French Open. He’s won all five of his matches in straight sets, including  a dominant quarterfinal over Alexander Bublik. Sinner dropped just six total games in the three sets they played in the quarters.

Overall, he’s made quick work of just about everyone, but he’s not nearly as big of a favorite in the semis as he was in the quarters. Sinner was a -5000 favorite to advance to the semifinal but is only a -450 favorite to reach the final. 

In his career against Djokovic, he’s 4-4, although he has won four of the last five meetings, including their semifinal matchup last year at the Australian Open.

Sinner doesn't have as much success as the veteran Djokovic at Roland Garros, as this is just his second semifinal appearance in six tries. He’s never made a French Open Final, but he can change that on Friday. 

Novak Djokovic: How Did They Get Here?

Djokovic was set in a pick’em in the quarterfinals against Zverev – the No. 3 player in the world – but he finished him off in four sets.

A familiar face in the French Open Final over the last 15 years, Djokovic has struggled a bit against Sinner, losing the last three meetings against him. However, he does have a win in their lone meeting on clay earlier in both of their careers.

Djokovic won each of his first four matches in straight sets, and he’s made three of the last five finals at Roland Garros. So, even though he’s an underdog, it’s hard to count him out at this event. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic: What the Odds Say and Prediction

Based on these odds where Sinner is a -450 favorite, the Italian has an implied probability of 81.82 percent to advance to the final on Sunday. Djokovic is a massive underdog, but he should be at a tournament that he’s fared so well at?

I don’t think so. 

Djokovic has been elite at Roland Garros in his career, making at least the quarterfinals in 15 straight appearances. Unlike Sinner, he has actually won the French Open, and he’s made the final on seven different occasions. So, there is an experience factor here that benefits the world’s No. 6 player.

These two have gone head-to-head eight times in their careers, splitting those matchups. Djokovic won the lone matchup between the two on clay back in 2021. However, they have never faced off in the French Open.

Since Sinner has won the last three meetings between these two, it makes sense that he’s favored on Friday. However, I think this has the potential to go five sets, so I’m going to take the OVER in total games. 

For bettors that really want to get aggressive, Djokovic does have some value to win at +330. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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