Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Semifinal

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic match in the semifinals at Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic is an underdog against Jannik Sinner. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Despite dealing with an injury, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is through to the semifinals at Wimbledon for the second time in his career, but he’ll face one of the best players on grass of all time in Novak Djokovic.

This is a rematch of the semifinals at the French Open earlier this year, when Sinner took down Djokovic in straight sets to advance to the final. However, things will be much different at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, where Djokovic has won seven times and made six consecutive appearances in the final.

The Serbian is 2-0 against Sinner at Wimbledon, although those wins came in the 2022 quarterfinal and the 2023 semifinal. Can he keep that streak going with Sinner potentially at less than 100 percent after injuring himself in the Round of 16 against Grigor Dimitrov?

Let’s take a look at the odds for this match, as well as the path for each player to get here. Plus, I have a prediction for which player will advance to the final on Sunday. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -200
• Novak Djokovic: +160

Total

• 39.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 11
• Time: 10:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here

Sinner’s path to the semifinals at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club has not been as smooth as you’d expect.

While he did defeat American Ben Shelton in straight sets in the quarterfinals, he was on the verge of being knocked out in the Round of 16 before Dimitrov was forced to retire due to his own injury.

Dimitrov won the first two sets against Sinner, and he had the Italian on the ropes before going down. Prior to that match, Sinner had been rolling, losing just 17 games over his first three matches at Wimbledon in 2025. 

So, can he beat Djokovic?

Sinner is 5-4 all time against the Serbian, but he has won the last four meetings between the two. However, he has not beaten Djokovic on grass, losing both of their meetings at Wimbledon. 

Novak Djokovic: How Did They Get Here?

The seven-time champion has a chance to reach the Wimbledon Final for the seventh year in a row, although he has come up short against Carlos Alcaraz in each of the last two years. 

Djokovic dropped his first set against Flavio Cobolli in the quarterfinals, but he rebounded to win three sets in a row and advance to the semis for the 14th time in his career at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

Now, Djokovic has struggled against Sinner in recent years, losing to him this year in the French Open and last year in the Australian Open. He last beat Sinner in 2023 at the Nitto ATP Finals in the Final. 

The key for Djokovic is he is one of the greatest players on grass ever, and he’s dominated Sinner at Wimbledon, beating him twice while winning six of out of eight total sets. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the odds, Sinner has an implied probability of 66.67 percent to advance to the Final on Sunday, but should bettors lay that number on the Italian? 

It’s unclear if Sinner is going to be at less than 100 percent in this match, as he played pretty well against Shelton to advance to the semis.

However, Djokovic is one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen at Wimbledon, and he’s extremely hard to fade when he’s appeared in six straight Finals and Sinner has never made one.

While Sinner has dominated their recent meetings, I can’t get past the fact that he’s yet to beat Djokovic on grass. The Serbian has dropped just three sets in this entire tournament so far, and one has to wonder if Sinner would even be in this position had Dimitrov not gotten hurt. 

It’s been a great year for Sinner at the Grand Slam events as he won the Australian Open and was the runner up – after blowing a huge lead – at Roland Garros. 

Despite that, I am going to trust that Djokovic has at least one more run at Wimbledon in him, and bet on him as an underdog to reach the Final for the seventh time in a row.  

Pick: Djokovic to Win (+160 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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