Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal

Jun 3, 2024; Paris, France; Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan returns a shot during her match against Elina Svitolina of Ukraine on day nine of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 3, 2024; Paris, France; Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan returns a shot during her match against Elina Svitolina of Ukraine on day nine of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

After years of futile efforts, Jasmine Paolini is enjoying her career-best run at the 2024 French Open, into the quarterfinals for the first time in six attempts. 

The World No. 15 has struggled at Roland-Garros but has won four straight to set up her first opponent inside the world No. 70 Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.

The world No. 4 Rybakina is enjoying her best appearance at the French Open since 2021, which ties for her career-best mark. Can she extend it and make the semifinals? 

Here’s the full betting preview: 

Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • Paolini: +5.5: (-142)
  • Rybakina: -6.5: (+106)

Moneyline

  • Paolini: +340
  • Rybakina: -450

Total: 20.5 (Over -110/Under -122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

The two top 15 players have played two full matches against one another, both won by Rybakina, but the most recent one was a three-set match on (indoor) clay in Stuttgart (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). Paolini couldn’t make good on her second serves, winning 39% of those points and facing 15 break points to Rybakina’s seven BPs. 

So, how can the Italian close the gap against Rybakina after facing a low level of competition thus far? I’d say it's on Paolini holding serve and dragging the match into potential tiebreak situations. Ryabakina has a vicious first serve on clay and has held on nearly 75% of her 70 tracked matches on clay, per TennisAbstract. However, she has only broken opponents on about 38% of return games. 

A lot of Rybakina’s matches in the run-up to Roland-Garros featured longer matches. In eight clay court wins before the French Open, four of them went to three sets, including her win against Paolini. While I won’t call for the outright upset, I think we see a bit more resistance than the odds expect and this is a longer match. 

I’ll back the over games as my preferred bet in this French Open quarterfinal.

PICK: OVER 20.5 Games (-110)


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Published
Reed Wallach

REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.