Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction: Chisholm Jr. Has Longest Odds to Win

Iain MacMillan | Jul 14, 2025

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the longest odds to win this year's MLB Home Run Derby. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Jazz Chisholm Jr. was the final addition to the MLB Home Run Derby, and it was a surprising one, to say the least.

The Yankees' infielder has never been known as a power bat. He has 17 home runs this season with a .517 slugging percentage in 65 games, but there would have been other players who would have made more sense as a derby participant. Because of that, Chisholm Jr. has the longest odds to win of all eight batters.

So, how should we bet on him? Let's take a look at the odds.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run Derby Odds

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• To Win: +1400
• To Make Semifinals: +172
• To NOT Make Semifinals: -215
• First Round Home Runs: 17.5 (Over -125/Under -104)

Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run Derby Prediction

While I don't think Chisholm Jr. will win this thing, I do think his lack of power is exaggerated. While he hasn't posted big power numbers in seasons past, his 2025 metrics are surprisingly solid. He ranks seventh in Barrel% (18.6%) and fourth in Fly-ball Rate (53.2%).

I do have some concerns about who he has chosen to pitch to him. Instead of choosing a member of the Yankees staff, Chisholm Jr. opted for his stepfather.

I'm not confident in him truly contending in this thing or making the semifinals, but I do think his first-round Home Run total is too late. The OVER 17.5 at -125 is the bet to target for the Yankee.

Pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 17.5 First Round Home Runs (-125)

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