Kansas State vs. USC Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Can USC win without JuJu Watkins?

USC Trojans forward Kiki Iriafen will look to lead her team to a win as a small favorite. / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans are in the Sweet 16, but the No. 1 seed’s outlook is much different than it was entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Superstar guard JuJu Watkins tore her ACL in the second round of the tournament against Mississippi State, and that has put the Trojans in a tough spot in their Sweet 16 matchup on Saturday.

USC is set as just a 1.5-point favorite against the No. 5-seeded Kansas State Wildcats, who cruised past the first round before winning by one in overtime against Kentucky in the Round of 32. 

Can Kansas State pull off another upset in the Sweet 16?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this intriguing matchup. 

Kansas State vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Kansas State +1.5 (-110)
• USC -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Kansas State: +106
• USC: -130

Total

• 140.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kansas State vs. USC How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 29
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Spokane Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Kansas State record: 28-7
• USC record: 30-3

Kansas State vs. USC Key Players to Watch

Kansas State 

Serena Sundell: One of the best guards in the country, Sundell leads the country in assists per game (7.3) this season and had 19 points in the win over Kentucky in the second round. This season, Sundell is shooting 50.3 percent from the field, 32.5 percent from 3 and averaging 13.9 points per game (second on the team). 

USC

Kiki Iriafen: All eyes are on the USC forward in this game, and she stepped up in a big way without Watkins in the Round of 32. Iriafen finished with 36 points and nine rebounds in that game, leading the Trojans to a blowout victory. Overall this season, the star forward is averaging 18.6 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. 

Kansas State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Everyone – including oddsmakers – is down on the Trojans, but I think this line is a great opportunity to buy low. 

Yes, Watkins is one of the best players in the country and the driving force on offense for this squad, but USC had five players not named Watkins finish in double figures in the win over Mississippi State. 

USC didn’t just win that game, it blew out Mississippi State by 37 points. The Trojans also dominated against tough competition all season long, going 9-2 against teams in the AP Top 25. 

On the other hand, the Wildcats did not. They went just 3-5 against ranked opponents, and they narrowly knocked off Kentucky in the second round.

To assume that USC without Watkins is around Kentucky’s level is a little disrespectful to Iriafen and the rest of this supporting cast. As a whole, USC is 10th in points per game, eighth in field goal percentage and fourth in two-point percentage.

I would not be shocked if it still advances to the Elite 8. 

Pick: USC Moneyline (-130 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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