Laura Siegemund vs. Madison Keys Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 3 (Can Siegemund Pull Off Another Upset?)

Iain MacMillan | Jul 3, 2025

Madison Keys is set as a -750 favorite in the third round of Wimbledon against Laura Siegemund. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Laura Siegemund pulled off one of several upsets in the first two rounds of Wimbledon, taking down No. 29 Leylah Fernandez in the second round. Unfortunately for her, things won't get easier for her as she's now scheduled to take on No. 6 Madison Keys in the third round.

Keys, the 2025 Australian Open champion, is looking to make the deepest run at Wimbledon she's had in her career. Continuing to take care of business in the early rounds will be pivotal in her achieving that goal.

Laura Siegemund vs. Madison Keys Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Laura Siegemund +500
• Madison Keys -750

Total Games

• 19.5 (Over -120/Under -115)

Laura Siegemund vs. Madison Keys How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 4
• Time: 7:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Laura Siegemund: How They've Fared at Wimbledon

Laura Siegemund has made her mark on the tennis world largely playing in doubles, with three double grand slam championships to her name, but she's struggled to find the same level of success in singles. With that being said, she has already posted her career-best result at Wimbledon with a third-round appearance. This is her first time making it to the third round in 10 appearances.

She made it to this point by defeating Peyton Stearns in the first round and then following it up with an upset against Fernandez in the second round.

Madison Keys: How They've Fared at Wimbledon

Madison Keys is still seeking her first semifinal appearance at Wimbledon. She has posted a better result in the three other grand slams, including a win at this year's Australian Open and a runner-up finish at the 2017 U.S. Open. The Americans have made it to the quarterfinals here in both 2015 and 2023.

She suffered a scare in the first round against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, losing the first set, but then went on to win two straight sets 7-5, 7-5. She followed that up by making quick work of Olga Danilovic in the second round.

Laura Siegemund vs. Madison Keys: Prediction and What the Odds Say

Keys is set as a significant favorite in this match at -750 odds. If you translate those odds to implied probability, she has an 88.24% chance of winning the match.

These two will face each other for the first time since 2016. They met twice that year, each winning one of two games. The important thing to note is that one of those matches was at Wimbledon, with Keys winning in straight sets in the first round, 6-3, 6-1.

While I do think Keys gets the win here, I think there's value betting on Siegemund to cover the 5.5-game spread. Keys should have some struggles in the first round against a significantly inferior opponent, while Siegemund has clearly been playing some of the best tennis of her singles career and will carry momentum from her upset victory into this round.

Pick: Laura Siegemund +5.5 games (-125) via DraftKings

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