Liberty vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

The Liberty are favored to move to 8-0 in the 2025 season.

The Liberty are road favorites against Washington on Thursday. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The undefeated New York Liberty are looking to build on their impressive +48 point differential in Commissioner’s Cup play when they take on the Washington Mystics for the second time this season. 

Washington enters this game on a two-game skid, losing to the Indiana Fever on Tuesday night despite a big game from rookie Kiki Iriafen. 

These teams met back on May 30, with the Liberty picking up a 22-point win on the road. New York is set as a double-digit favorite in this matchup, as it looks to build on an impressive 5-2 against the spread record in 2025. 

The Liberty are expected to contend for another title in the 2025 season, but the Mystics have been scrappy in 2025, covering the spread in four of their eight games while getting strong showings from young players like Iriafen and Sonia Citron.

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Commissioner’s Cup clash on Thursday. 

Liberty vs. Mystics Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Liberty -12.5 (-110)
• Mystics +12.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Liberty: -900
• Mystics: +600

Total

• 163 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Mystics How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: CareFirst Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Liberty record: 7-0
• Mystics record: 3-5

Liberty vs. Mystics Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

• Nyara Sabally – day-to-day

Note: Sabally missed the Liberty’s last game with a knee injury. 

Mystics Injury Report

• Georgia Amoore – out

Liberty vs. Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Sabrina Ionescu OVER 4.5 Assists (+104)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Ionescu is a great prop target in this matchup:

Sabrina Ionescu has taken a bit of a step back as a playmaker for the Liberty this season with the addition of Natasha Cloud, but she’s still averaging 4.7 assists per game.

Ionescu has at least five dimes in four of her seven games, and she’s yet to fall short of four assists in any game. So, there’s a pretty solid floor for the Liberty star when it comes to this prop.

With the OVER set at plus money, I think Ionescu is worth a shot against a Washington team that is seventh in the WNBA in defensive rating. Sabrina had five dimes in the 22-point win over the Mystics earlier this season. 

Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kiki Iriafen OVER 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-118)

Rookie forward Kiki Iriafen has been awesome for the Mystics this season, averaging 14.6 points and 10 rebounds per game.

She’s coming off a 20-point, nine-rebound showing against the Fever on Tuesday, and she’s picked up 21 or more points and rebounds in six of her eight games this season. 

While the Liberty did hold the No. 4 overall pick to just 12 points and seven boards in their first meeting, Iriafen also shot just 4-for-14 from the field in that game. Overall, she’s shooting 51.7 percent from the field in the 2025 season.

I expect some positive regression against New York for the rookie sensation, who is averaging nearly four more points and rebounds per game than she needs to clear this line. 

Liberty vs. Mystics Prediction and Pick

These are two of the best UNDER teams in the WNBA this season, and the New York defense is a major reason why I like the UNDER in this matchup.

The Liberty have a defensive rating of 87.7 – by far the best in the WNBA – and is allowing just 71.3 points per game.

They held the Mystics to just 63 points in the first meeting between these teams (they combined for 148 total points), and Washington now ranks 11th in the WNBA in offensive rating in the 2025 campaign. 

The Mystics are going to have a tough time containing New York’s No. 1 offense, but these teams were well shy of this total in their first meeting.

Plus, Washington has hit the UNDER in six of eight games while the Liberty have done so in four of seven games. I expect this matchup to fall short of 163 points on Thursday night. 

Pick: UNDER 163 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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